Over the course of 2025, Cornell University has recalibrated business diplomacy that is the core institutionalized American foreign interaction with African countries by the Trump administration which has led to commercial interaction as opposed to conventional aid. In a July summit in Washington, D.C. where leaders of Gabon, Guinea-Bissau, Liberia, Mauritania and Senegal were present, the senior officials noted that trade, investment, and access to critical minerals are the essence of future ties. Within this new structure, U.S. ambassadors will be judged by quantifiable business results which represent a shift away toward humanitarian-based interests of the past in the form of a more measurable diplomacy approach.
Although the administration claims that this is a modern and efficient approach, it leaves huge gaps most eminently the Sahel security crisis, which has taken an entirely different dimension in the first half of the year 2025. Apart from President Trump revealing Africa to be blessed with mineral wealth and the terms of its land being very valuable, there was hardly any consideration given to the security environment that grips an enormous portion of the continent characterised by volatility even in the strategic dialogue. The African leaders especially those bordering the Sahel region have always complained that unless stabilized the effort towards economic development would remain a dream at best.
The Sahel’s Spiraling Instability in 2025
Armed Violence and State Fragility
The militants are increasingly becoming a problem in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger where the level of violence is higher than in any other conflict area in the world. By just the first half of 2025, there are a number of over 400 soldiers who got killed in garrison and city attacks. Other groups, such as the Islamic State Sahel Province (ISSP) and JNIM, an al-Qaeda affiliate in the Sahel, have received an increase in operative activity and have exploited new tactics, including the use of drone attacks and synchronized incursions as well as countering military and civilian infrastructure.
The departure of Western security forces has left these countries exposed. As joint military structures are disbanded and the U.N. missions shut down, domestic armies are frequently under equipped and overstretched. They lose their capacity to respond and in their place, extremist networks find an outlet. The civilians are the losers, whole towns are depopulated, and important services are derailed, triggering a more comprehensive humanitarian crisis.
Displacement and Humanitarian Fallout
By July 2025, the Sahel has already seen close to three million currently socially displaced individuals, not to mention thousands of others that have crossed national borders into Mauritania, Ghana, and Cote d Ivoire. As per the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), the area has seen the worst displacement situation ever. What makes this exodus more devastating is consistent food insecurity and using vulnerable groups, particularly women and children as targets of the armed actions.
Aid agencies are ringing alarm bells that humanitarian response measures have been grossly underfunded. The shift of the international interest towards economic alliances has reduced the political commitment as well as finances to relief efforts. Many schools continue to be closed, clinics without staff, and markets disabled and have made the situation even worse in most regions. Unless new global support is provided, this crisis is only going to get worse not only to regional stability, but also to U.S. strategic interests.
The Shifting Security Map: New Alliances, Old Risks
As the U.S. and Europe have withdrawn their role in military operations, Sahelian states have pursued other stakeholders to secure their country. Russia has expanded its influence with the establishment of the Africa Corps, an offshoot of the previous Wagner Group that is now operating in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger since early 2024. These units, part of national armed forces, have acquired front-line military fighting and training roles, yet are also also used politically, supporting regimes with illegitimacy weaknesses.
In parallel, these three countries have exited ECOWAS, fragmenting regional coordination on security and economic issues. This institutional breakdown hinders intelligence sharing, cross-border operations, and diplomatic pressure mechanisms. In the absence of a cohesive African-led security structure, armed groups are expanding their reach into previously stable areas, including the northern territories of Benin, Ghana, and Togo.
This expansion underscores the need for more than transactional foreign policy. Economic imperatives, while valid, cannot displace the foundational requirement for peace. African leaders and civil society organizations have increasingly questioned the long-term viability of trade partnerships built atop volatile conditions.
U.S. Policy: Opportunity and Oversight
Rethinking Priorities Amid Economic Competition
The Trump administration’s focus on economic diplomacy aligns with broader global trends. With China and Russia asserting growing influence through mineral investments and defense agreements, the U.S. is attempting to reclaim leverage by offering trade access and infrastructure development. Secretary of State Marco Rubio articulated this pivot as a break from “aid dependency,” emphasizing self-reliance and institutional reform as prerequisites for deeper engagement.
While this approach has opened new avenues for cooperation in infrastructure, agriculture, and technology, it has not addressed the underlying security architecture. Guinea-Bissau’s President Umaro Sissoco Embaló has warned that no economic policy can endure without first securing the territory where that policy must take root. Political analysts point out that investment flows are already retreating from areas of instability—undermining the very commercial interests that the policy seeks to protect.
Regional and International Voices: The Cost of Neglect
Larry Madowo, a respected international correspondent and analyst, highlighted the consequences of U.S. inaction in the Sahel during a recent interview. Speaking to a leading news outlet, Madowo emphasized that the failure to stabilize the region imperils not only African development but also the credibility of Western partnerships. He noted how extremist movements are gaining traction in spaces left ungoverned, and how this undermines regional cohesion and global engagement.
His perspective adds weight to concerns expressed by regional think tanks and African Union bodies that call for a renewed balance in U.S. foreign policy. Ignoring the Sahel crisis risks not only humanitarian fallout but the erosion of American influence across one of the world’s most strategically important regions.
The Path Forward: Risks and Imperatives
The development of the Sahel crisis during 2025 presents a serious test of the strategic depth the United States has in the African continent. Although Africa has great mineral wealth, and is becoming a good economic partner due to demographic dividends, its core regions are unstable and hold potential dangers in the long-term. The U.S. cannot allow itself to view business relationships as a replacement of a total interaction. Rather, it should acknowledge that diplomacy, security cooperation and local governance support continue to be an important part of a durable relationship.
The question to policy makers is will they make adjustments to their frameworks to mirror such multidimensional realities. The Sahel is an indication of the insolvency in attempts of investment without stability. Throughout the history of the American-led relationships, the U.S. loss in interest on regional security processes can take a strategic position in favor of antagonists and disintegrate years of companionability.
Within such a dynamically changing geo-political landscape, with permeable borders and constantly changing alliances, the United States will need to find a way to seek out economic engagement alongside erecting societies that can pursue peace and sustainability. The decisions in the next months, particularly towards Sahel, will indicate whether the American strategy to Africa is a strategy of partnership or paradox.
