The North-East insurgency in Nigeria is still pushing the boundaries of counter-terrorist resilience of this country. The asymmetric warfare has been redesigned by the two main actors: Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) with the development of sophisticated tactics, mobility, and different types of propaganda. The continued existence of the crisis is highlighted by the fact that more than a dozen synchronized attacks on military and civilian infrastructure will take place in the first half of 2025.
The rise of ISWAP in the use of weaponized drones, the use of anti-aircraft guns and armored vehicles, many of them looted in military reserves is a step in the development of militant capability. According to analysts, the group is adapting to evolving dynamics on the battlefield, which reflects more general trends throughout the Sahel, with non-state actors doing so by taking advantage of governance gaps and open borders to increase their presence. The outcome is confrontation that goes beyond the conventional insurgency and plunges into hybrid warfare.
Nigerian Military’s Counter-terrorism Efforts: Gains and Limitations
The Nigerian Army aided by the Multinational joint task force (MNJTF) remains in a multi front war against insurgent activities. The MNJTF has been at the forefront of re-taking major territories especially in the region of the Lake Chad Basin and this has been through the forces of Chad, Niger, Cameroon and Benin. One of the most thorough attempts to dismantle militant logistics networks is Operation lake sanity, which was first introduced in 2022 and continues in 2025.
According to military messages of the recent days, hundreds of rebels were neutralized and several hideouts were destroyed. But analysts warn that on paper may not necessarily equate to strategic advantage. Military victories are still negated by the strength of ISWAP recruitment machinery and their capacity to tap into local grievances. Also, the overstretched Nigerian forces have logistical problems, and even morale problems, particularly in distant combat zones having few infrastructures.
International Partnerships and Intelligence Sharing
The structure of counter-terrorism in Nigeria has the advantage of having long-term relations with foreign countries, especially the United States, France, and the European Union. The army situation awareness has been enhanced through intelligence sharing, aerial reconnaissance and technical training. Geopolitical changes, however, have changed the regional security assistance balance, like the withdrawal of U.S. troops in Niger in 2024 and the redesign of the French operation Barkhane.
These developments have created a partial vacuum that has been seemingly ready to be filled by Russia as well as other non-western actors with military collaboration and weapons transactions. The ensuing multipolar intervention in the security of West Africa brings up the issue of conflicting interests and the possibility of loss of coordinated approach.
Human Security and Civilian Impact
However, in spite of the tactical advances, the sufferings of the civilians are enormous. According to the United Nations Office of the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), an estimated total of more than 2.5 million people are yet to be resettled within the North-East. The strategic decision by the insurgents to attack the rural communities, schools, and aid deliveries still destroys lives.
Ransom kidnappings and child forcibly recruiting are also typical features of Boko Haram and ISWAP. Cases of assaults on the humanitarian elements also have risen, compelling some temporary suspension of relief efforts in the Borno and Yobe states. What it has ended up creating is more of a humanitarian crisis that destabilizes the validity of military wins and casts serious doubts on the long-term viability.
Accountability and Civil-Military Relations
The human rights groups have severally asked the Nigerian government to put security needs against the respect of the civilian rights. Lack of arbitrary arrests and extrajudicial measures have put a strain on the good faith especially in places where the local people form the initial intelligence-gathering force.
According to the internal analysis of the Nigerian Army on civility-military relations (2025), it was recommended that it should focus on more transparency, compensation systems, and community-based engagement programs to restore its credibility. In the absence of these, counter-terrorism will be turned into a repression and revenge cycle.
Regional and Geopolitical Implications
The North-East crisis in Nigeria is growing to be a national frontier that spills over to Niger, Chad and Cameroon. The failure of border control systems and spread of weapons out of Libya and Sudan has provided a dynamic conflict environment. The illegal mining and taxation of the border also contribute to the destabilization of the region by smuggling and financing the militants.
The joint patrols by the MNJTF have been successful in a partial sense in countering supply chains but there are still coordination difficulties. The change of leadership in the task force and the change in political priorities of the member states make the sustained operations difficult. Analysts emphasize that the regional cohesion factor is the most key variable that defines the long-term pattern of counter-terrorism success.
The Shifting Role of Global Powers
The geopolitical aspect of the counter-terrorist environment of Nigeria has turned more complicated. The first principle of Western partners is capacity-building and adherence to human rights, whereas the newcomers like Russia and China are concerned with military equipment and bilateral security agreements. This duality brings in a possibility and a threat: diversified help might enhance the capacity of Nigeria besides possibly undermining policy coherence.
The fact that the Sahel is generally deteriorating, especially after coups in Burkina Faso and Niger, highlights how regional stability is too much dependent on each other. Whether West Africa is up to the challenge of the next wave of militant expansion, or falls prey to it, may be decided by how Nigeria leads a coherent regional counter-terrorism strategy.
Information Warfare and Public Narratives
The communalized nature of communication in Nigeria at the counter-terrorism strategy has been a crucial, and a disputed area. The territories captured and the number of insurgents killed are frequently highlighted in government reports and positioned as the sources of an even greater victory. Nevertheless, the differences between the rhetoric and reality on the ground generate the level of uncertainty among civilians and observers.
The local journalists and independent analysts have shown the cases when the re-captured areas have soon returned to the hands of militants and cast doubt on the viability of the government control. Openness of reporting, as well as proper registration of civilian casualties, is critical in creating credibility locally and internationally.
The Role of Media and Civil Society
The civil society groups and the independent media are critical in recording the abuses and give voice to the affected communities. In 2025, digital platforms will be some of the most critical arenas where accounts of success and misery will be competing to gain legitimacy. The attempts of the state to control the social media discourse allegedly to reduce misinformation have been labeled as possible invasions of free speech.
Well-rounded characters are thus essential. Excessive focus on military successes without any references to humanitarian facts can blur the complexity of the security crisis in Nigeria. On the other hand, stories about desperation in themselves can destroy morale and global backing.
The fragile equilibrium between Nigeria’s counter-terrorism narratives and the realities on the ground illustrates the multidimensional nature of modern conflict. Military operations, though necessary, cannot independently resolve the entrenched socio-economic grievances that sustain insurgency. As the North-East enters yet another year of uncertainty, the real test lies in integrating security with governance, humanitarian recovery, and community resilience. Only through this alignment can Nigeria hope to transform transient military gains into enduring peace across its most volatile region.
