The Sahel is now considered the most dangerous terrorism area in the world as more than half of the terror attacks deaths in the world in 2024 and first half of 2025 were recorded in the region. The 2025 Global Terrorism Index indicated that the number of deaths in the Sahel had reached 3,885 out of 7,555, which translates to a disturbing increase that saw almost next to zero incidents being recorded barely 20 years ago.
The escalating violence unleashed by Islamic State-affiliated militants and Jama Muslimeen (JNIM), an al-Qaedas-linked military alliance, is the cause of this crisis. These militias take advantage of political instability, bad governance and extensive socio-economic grievances spreading to Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, Chad and the northern part of Nigeria.
What is particularly disturbing about this trend is the demography of the area. The percentage of people below the age of 25 who populate Sahel is nearly two thirds of the population and they are highly unemployed and uneducated. Combined with battered economies and beleaguered governments who do not pay close attention to their citizens, this youth bulge has been radicalized, productive and fertile in recruiting militants.
Regional Alliances: Renewed Hope in a Rough Landscape
The Alliance of Sahel States and Coordinated Security
In an attempt to counter this frightening tendency, the governments in the region have increased collaboration. Establishment of Alliance of Sahel States is another serious move of bringing intelligence together and joint military response as well as development of a unified front against the insurgent groups.
Tactical successes have been obtained strikes against terrorist hideouts, capture of mid- level commanders and at times, recovery of ground. Such modest advances indicate the increased sophistication of national armed forces as well as appreciation of the fact that unilateral action by a single nation is not enough.
Nonetheless, the structural issues are enormous. United command structures are hindered by political instability that has been an issue with recent coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger. Disjointed leadership makes coordination uneasy, and the communication channel goes off track, not to mention, reducing the harmony that ought to accompany strategic achievement over a long period of time.
Shifting Foreign Partnerships and Military Realignments
The Sahel’s foreign policy orientation has also shifted dramatically. States such as Mali and Burkina Faso have rejected Western military influence and sought military aid and assistance with countries such as Russia and in some instances, even with privately hired military contractors such as the Wagner Group.
G5 Sahel force which used to be a foundation of security in the region has fallen apart because of lack of funds and divisions within its ranks. In 2024, the officially existing Operation Barkhane by France, which had already diminished the foreign military presence, soon ceased to exist.
The United States and the EU among other Western powers continue to provide training on counterterrorist measures and logistical assistance. Nonetheless, these attempts cannot be active without well-functioning state institutions and inclusive political procedures to promote stability in the long-run.
Why Terrorism Thrives Despite These Efforts
Fragmented Jihadist Networks and Tactical Adaptability
The Sahel’s jihadist patchwork is far from coherent. Factions frequently break apart, rename or associate themselves with other competing networks, meaning the threat environment is in a state of relative flux. The dynamics enables groups to outsmart set military patterns as well as foil peace talks.
There are also those who target military outposts and government buildings so that they can attack or destroy those in order to illustrate power and terrorize people. The inability of these groups to have cohesive goals lowers the outcome of the blanket ceasefire accords or general disarmament.
Weak Governance and Declining Institutional Legitimacy
The main cause of the crisis is an empty space in governance. Corruption, patronage politics and ineffective bureaucracy is rampant in most Sahelian states. The remoteness of rural areas usually drives the state actors to leave behind their footprint and the armed groups provide justice to the affected and deliver primitive services.
It is this pseudo-governance model that has been important to the survival of insurgents. It distorts the confidence in state structures, and it gets difficult in the process of reintegrating communities in the middle ground between the militants and state forces.
The discontent with the performance of civilian governments has been evident in military coups in Mali (2021), Burkina Faso (2022) and Niger (2023), which were symptomatic of the lack of basic security and the sheer disillusion with civilian governments. Military juntas have, however, also failed to curb violence too.
The Socioeconomic Web of Radicalization
The conflict is additionally fired up by a high number of births, a poor economic diversification and the destruction of the environment. Droughts, caused by the change of climate, have increased the competition of the resources between farmers and herders, especially in Niger and northern Nigeria. Such neighbourhood conflicts have become so pre-conquered by jihadist groups who take advantage and use them to acquire power and acquire soldiers.
The international development agencies have cautioned that malnutrition, displacement, school closures, etc. are not some collateral effect of violence, but rather a cause of it. Then unless further attention on the youth, infrastructure, and services is given, military vested interests will not be able to win the hearts and minds.
Toward a Coordinated and Sustainable Response
Institutional Building and Cross-Border Synchronization
Regional organisations such as the Alliance of Sahel States provide an elusive chance of long term cooperation. However, these efforts have to move towards being preventive rather than reactive in the nature of crisis management. This implies integration of defense terms, exchange of workable knowledge, joint patrols along uncontrolled borders that armed elements easily transit through.
However, unless there is investment in these alliances to create civilian oversight and long-term capacity development, such alliances can be overwhelmed by short termism and political change.
The International Role and Limits of External Involvement
Although military training and donor assistance is important, top foreign actors should coordinate their activities with the local province of governance and economic development. Efforts to counter terror without social approach easily provoke counter reaction and nutrients extremist propaganda.
Moreover, external engagement must avoid reinforcing state abuses. The arbitrary arrests and extrajudicial killings reported in some sections of Mali and Burkina Faso have spoiled counterterror operations and turned away communities in the countries.
There have emerged hybrid strategies of integrating military discipline and local mediation, vocational training and community policing in some of the districts with success. Such strategies should be implemented widely and developed steadily.
Expert Perspectives on the Crisis
Pieter Van Ostaeyen, security expert and analyst on jihadist movements, pointed out the complexity of violence that defines Sahel. In one of his recent posts, he saw the necessity of targeting not only ideological radicalism but structural grievances that facilitate the existence of insurgencies. He warned that the region was likely to be inundated with instability in absence of combo economic and political policies:
Van Ostaeyen’s remarks echo a growing consensus that military victories alone will not end the Sahel’s cycle of insurgency. A more comprehensive approach is not only optimal, it is necessary.
As 2025 approaches, Sahel has become a test case and even a warning story. Will regional alliances be able to tackle long term divisions and lack of resources to provide actual security? Or will the young people of the region fall into another whirlpool of violence and depression?
There are no higher stakes involved. Whatever transpired in Sahel could actually determine the future outlines of international anti-terrorist policy, as well as establish new edges between sovereignty, security and solidarity in the XXI century.
