In 2025, Nigeria was at a crucial juncture in its many-years-long fight against terrorism. After decades of counterterrorism, recent indicators portend a disturbing threatened increase in Nigeria in terms of violence from terrorist activities. According to the latest Global Terrorism Index released by the Institute for Economics and Peace, Nigeria ranks sixth with a total score of 7.658, reflecting the fresh wave of terrorism after declining events in past years. The country saw a total of 565 deaths attributed to terrorism in 2024, representing a 34% increase from 2023 and indicating that whatever security gains are realized remain tenuous.
While this figure is far below Nigeria’s all-time high of 2,101 deaths in 2014, it does indicate the resurgence of different forms of organized violence within Nigeria’s northern and central states, and groups such as Boko Haram, the Islamic State West Africa Province, and newer splinter factions such as Lukarawas continue to adapt as they continue with asymmetric strategies and cross-border engagements, making containment more difficult. The instability also points to a regional crisis within the Sahel region as terrorist organizations are able to adapt to weak governance and borders in order to engage their organizations better.
More broadly, the trend shows that while global terror rates fall as insecurity levels rise in Africa. Therefore, Nigeria’s challenge encapsulates both domestic governance failures and international security failures and must engage time-sensitive, coordinated action.
Socioeconomic roots fueling insurgency
The decline of security in Nigeria cannot be separated from structural failings that are exploited by militants. Chronic poverty, corruption, and unevenness in development across provinces have created a sense of frustration and alienation, especially in the north of the country. While Nigeria has been blessed with vast natural resources, the country also faces a great deal of economic inequality, as unemployment and underemployment traffic is above 30 percent in multiple states.
The fragility of governance is a major enabler for extremism. In rural areas where there is little to no presence of the state, militant groups are providing alternative systems of governance that offer protection (security), some level of income, and/or justice to an area of the country where access to these formal institutions is almost non-existent. The absence of external governance has made many of these regions ideal for radical recruitment.
The intersection of poverty and radicalization
Security experts have often stated that military intervention on its own cannot remove the appeal of terrorism. The narratives of extremisms are strongest when the sentiments of discontentment with the state meets socioeconomic exclusion. Moreover, the ongoing failure to address the gaps in education and youth unemployment continues to sustain consistent lifelines of recruits. This connection was acknowledged by President Bola Tinubu, who remarked that “security cannot occur without opportunity,” underlining that anything associated with counterterrorism has to also be linked to development.
President Tinubu’s global appeal for collective action
In 2025, President Tinubu’s diplomatic effort to rally international support represents one of the most aggressive foreign policy initiatives of his presidency. At various recent international events, he encouraged world leaders to perceive Nigeria’s struggle against terrorism as a common global responsibility, cautioned about the impact of Africa’s instability on global peace, and spoke directly about the collective threat terrorism poses to all countries. He emphasized three priority areas: greater intelligence sharing; disruption of the financing chain supporting terrorism; and humanitarian assistance for displaced civilians.
Tinubu praised the spirit of Nigeria’s military but made clear that while national actions were necessary, they were not sufficient, especially in the context of transnational terrorism.
“Terrorism in one region creates insecurity in another region,”
he said, urging stronger support from both Western nations and African nations. His appeals are significant as the counter-terrorism paradigm is waning globally; however, they also demonstrate Nigeria’s frustration toward differing levels of international engagement and support.
Balancing sovereignty and external partnerships
Tinubu’s appeal also indicates that he is stuck between reaffirming national sovereignty and still having to ask for assistance. Nigeria’s reluctance to yield its sovereignty for international assistance has historically hindered collaboration, and perspectives about international involvement have also shifted as terrorism has become more transnational.
The administration is likely seeking support of unconditional technology transfers and creating new relationships for counter-IED and intelligence support from nation’s strategic allies; specifically the United States and the European Union now working to develop new partnerships in Africa.
Beyond the battlefield: Integrating socioeconomic reforms
Analysts mostly agree that, in addition to military strength, Nigeria’s counterterrorism victory will rest on social reform. The Tinubu government has begun to create community engagement programs and undertake rehabilitation programming in areas affected by violence to address long-term grievance issues. Programs that support local entrepreneurship and vocational training should emerge as viable economic alternatives to derail militant recruitment.
At the same time, there are existing deradicalization and rehabilitation programs that are expanding for ex-insurgents. These programs have shown promise and success in the early parts of their implementation; however, their effectiveness will rely on the injection of sustainable funding and credibility in the governance. These latter two areas are still points of weakness on the part of Nigeria.
Education and civic inclusion as long-term stabilizers
Growing agreement among policy analysts suggests education is a powerful deterrent against extremism. Structural investments in the school system in Northern Nigeria, long delayed by insecurity, are essential to breaking the cycles of radicalization. We also have civic inclusion, especially for marginalized groups (ethnic and religious minorities) to address exploitation of identity-based fragmentation by extremists.
Tinubu’s larger reform vision is consistent with that logic in promoting the idea of linking security operations to a socioeconomic renewal, but it may take some time to see results.
Regional security cooperation and geopolitical implications
Nigeria itself cannot resolve the terrorism problem. Located next to the Sahel belt-one of the most volatile places in the world-its security is eternally linked with that of Niger, Chad, and Cameroon. Cross-border mobilization of insurgents and arms trafficking networks undermine national defense priorities. Central to Tinubu’s plans is strengthening regional cooperation through arrangements like the Multinational Joint Task Force.
From a broader perspective, the political instability of surrounding states-especially with the recent coups in Niger and Chad-has made regional cooperation very difficult. The geopolitical shocks further heighten the security burden of Nigeria and complicate the efforts of President Tinubu to restore the leadership role for regional cooperation during the change in the political environment of Nigeria.
Global expectations and Nigeria’s leadership role
As Nigeria is the most populous country and largest economy in Africa, how it handles terrorism has implications beyond Nigeria itself into Africa and the entire world. A government in Tinubu’s hands will be compelled by domestic and international pressure to demonstrate how a reform-minded approach toward better security can coexist with democratic accountability. At this time, international observers are closely watching the government of Tinubu, knowing that Nigeria may set the pace for African countries in terms of how to balance counterterrorism preferences with human rights and open governance.
Rethinking global responsibility in an interconnected world
The 2025 Global Terrorism Index ranking of Nigeria represents the persistence and development of violent extremism on the continent. President Tinubu’s call for international cooperation is more than a request for help; it is about the fact that global security is inextricably linked. Those selfsame networks paying for or inspiring extremism in West Africa often run through digital and financial channels hundreds, if not thousands of miles from the region.
As a response, global powers must shift from episodic support to sustained partnership based on mutual responsibility. Nigeria’s battle against terrorism serves as an example of a more complex challenge achieving local resilience with international cooperation which requires political will, intelligence sharing and foresight for development.
As the year continues, analysts will be looking to see if the global community’s collaboration with Nigeria is built on rhetoric or results. Nigeria’s struggle is a possible case study of the international community’s resolve to deal with 21st-century security challenges collectively. The question will be whether world actors will respond to Tinubu’s call to action to make Nigeria’s battle a case for global actions rather than simply a new plea for engagement.
