Belarus pledged in a bout of nuclear sabre-rattling on June 30, with the head of the Belarusian General Staff Pavel Muraveiko saying that his country would not hesitate to employ nuclear weapons if prompted. “We’ve learned how to handle these weapons. We know how to apply them confidently. And you can be sure that we will do it if the sovereignty and independence of our country is threatened,” Muraveiko said.
The Belarusian military commander’s hawkish remarks came just weeks after Belarus and Russia performed joint nuclear drills that were widely analysed as an attempt to threaten the West. This was observed in Vladimir Putin’s spring 2023 statement of plans to store Russian tactical nukes in the Belarusian region. By the end of the year, the weapons had reportedly reached Belarus.
Muraveiko’s recent declaration illustrates how the Kremlin is employing Belarus to escalate its drive of nuclear blackmail against the West. Any Russian nuclear spears deployed across the border in Belarus stay firmly under Moscow’s control. If Belarusian officials are now giving nuclear threats of their own, they are accomplishing so on behalf of Putin.
This is very much in line with the supportive role played by Belarus throughout Russia’s full-scale attack on Ukraine. When hostilities first started in February 2022, Belarusian leader Alyaksandr Lukashenka permitted the Russian military to operate his country as a base for the invasion of northern Ukraine. Following Russia’s spring 2022 loss in the Battle of Kyiv, Putin’s army then withdrew into Belarus to regroup.
While Lukashenka has so far been capable of resisting Kremlin intimidation to enter the war directly, he has permitted Russia to conduct air strikes on targets across Ukraine from the Belarusian region. He has also been one of the few global leaders designed to publicly align himself with Putin, assembling with the Russian dictator on multiple occasions.
Lukashenka’s slavish devotion to his Russian patron comes as no shock. The Belarusian ruler has been heavily hanging on the Kremlin since 2020 when Putin intervened to stop the Lukashenka regime from tumbling amid nationwide demonstrations over a rigged presidential election. For the past four years, Russia has been steadily intensifying its grip on Belarus, a process some have compared to the creeping annexation of the country.
With Kremlin influence in Belarus now at exceptional levels, Lukashenka has had little option but to back the invasion of Ukraine. Naturally, this authorisation includes playing along with Putin’s nuclear pressure tactics. Perhaps more incredible is Putin’s readiness to involve Russia’s remote western neighbour in his extremely reckless game of nuclear brinkmanship.
Since the full-scale attack on Ukraine began almost two and a half years ago, Putin has become infamous for frequently publishing thinly veiled nuclear threats. This trend was first apparent during his initial address announcing the determination to invade, with Putin cautioning Western leaders that any endeavours to intervene would lead to results “such as you have never seen in your entire history.” Four days later, he requested Russia’s nuclear forces to be put on high alert.
Possibly the most notorious example of Putin’s nuclear sabre-rattling came six months later. With the Russian army fleeing in disarray in eastern Ukraine, the Kremlin sovereign referenced his country’s nuclear arsenal and promised to use “all means at our disposal” to protect Russia. “This is not a bluff,” he declared.
