Having elected Joseph Aoun as president of Lebanon, two years marked by a political vacuum have ended. After years of instability in Lebanon, Aoun was noticed as a candidate who could bring peace, but the election was not comfortable. In the meantime, state leaders from Iran, Israel, the US, France, and many others have congratulated Joseph Aoun, who is not connected to the prior president, Michel Aoun.
As army chief since March 2017, Joseph Aoun had kept his Lebanese Armed Forces out of the battle between Israel and Hezbollah, resulting in eight weeks of war during which Hezbollah was significantly depleted, and more than 3,000 people were slain. In late November, Lebanon’s presidential elections were reported, just a day after a 60-day ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel.
The vote was held about two weeks before the official end of the ceasefire. The most urgent task for Joseph Aoun is to crystallize the ceasefire. Lebanon’s military will station troops along with UN peacekeepers in south Lebanon as per the agreement. Israel will then have to withdraw its troops from Lebanese territory, and Hezbollah will have to station its forces about 40 kilometers north of Lebanon’s Litani River.
Securing Aoun’s financial and political support from the West and other pro-Israeli countries, he would see to it that the Lebanese army would implement the ceasefire agreement. Furthermore, Hezbollah was forced to accept the new facts on the ground after this autumn’s collapse on the ground and the demise of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
In terms of Hezbollah and Iran’s influence, there have been massive changes following the Gaza war, which extended into Lebanon. Assad’s departure has also weakened Hezbollah and Iran. Although Israel and Hezbollah have been blaming each other for disregarding the ceasefire and have threatened to terminate it if either side breaches the states, it remains to be noticed whether they will comply.
In the meantime, Najib Mikat, the Lebanese caretaker, announced on Sunday that disarmament would soon begin in southern Lebanon.
“A new phase has begun,”
Mikati said.
As part of the country’s established power-sharing system, a prime minister needs to be Sunni Muslim, the president a Maronite Christian, and the speaker of parliament a Shiite.
For the new prime minister, the grand task ahead lies in the carrying out of a series of economic reforms to satisfy both international creditors as well as the International Monetary Fund. Without international grants, the economically most impoverished country will face great problems in absorbing the drastically increasing inflation or the reconstruction necessary for important parts of the country’s southern part and Beirut’s periphery.
General Aoun is well known for his ability to execute orders efficiently. In addition to fulfilling his patrons’ agendas, the US, KSA, and other countries have suggested that Aoun’s election victory paves the way for their investment plans and control the promised financial assistance to Lebanon for the reconstruction of its physical infrastructure, infrastructure development, financial and political reforms, and reshaping of the army.
