The latest US bombings targeted Houthi strongholds that are regarded as locations for Houthi leadership and facilities. These strikes coincide closely with previous remarks by Trump and members of his cabinet that the United States needs to take a more aggressive stance against the rebel group.
The strikes in Sana’a and elsewhere in Yemen also signal another escalation of the fighting with the Houthis. Apparently aimed at destabilising the group’s military, the episode is a direct response to ongoing Houthi assaults on Red Sea shipping and more comprehensive regional aggression and threats. The Houthis will probably show resistance, suggesting the US policy of deterrence will take time to show its significance.
How have past airstrikes affected Houthi military strength?
Over the period of March 2015 to March 2022, the Saudi-led coalition carried out between 25,054 and 75,135 airstrike missions against Yemen’s Houthi movement. The Saudi-led coalition utilised modern US and European aircraft, deployed precision guided munitions, and was indirectly supported by the US military.
Over the past seven years, airstrikes across Houthi-held territory did not suffice to inhibit the Houthis’ capability to wage counter-strikes against Saudi Arabia’s aviation, energy and other civil infrastructure. As a result of the massive amount of weapons the Saudi-led coalition fired on Yemen and the amount of Saudi air-defense missiles fired at Houthi drones and missiles, the Houthis have shown their ability to supplement their attacks over time.
Will the Houthis retaliate after the US-led attacks?
While attacks targeting the Houthis’ bases, heads, and missile defenses may affect their ability to function in the short term, the Houthis have demonstrated strength in the past and were able to continue to pose a regional threat after subsequent strikes by the Saudi-led coalition and more recently the United States and UK.
In the coming days, the group will likely carry out a retaliatory strike, possibly against the USS Truman strike group in the Red Sea or US commands in the region, demonstrating to Yemenis living under their authority, their supporters in Tehran, and the broader international community that they remain unconcerned by the US operation.
How do US airstrikes impact Yemeni civilians?
While the attack also focuses on military installations and supplies, draining Houthi resources, the group has invariably demonstrated the ability to adjust and recover.
In addition to directly affecting the Houthis, these airstrikes affect a large number of civilians, as Houthi-controlled territory comprises more than 60 percent of Yemen’s population. This infuses fear and grows resentment toward the United States from residents who do not back the Houthis.
Large-scale devastation and civilian deaths are bound to generate outrage, which the Houthis can manipulate to mobilise more support. Without a sweeping strategy that disrupts weapons and parts trafficking through Iran, and manages the political and economic drivers that support the Houthis, this week’s strikes risk prolonging the misery of Yemenis.
