US President Donald Trump has moved the United States into a more threatening phase of confrontation with Venezuela as a result of a CIA operation against a Venezuelan port facility with ties to drug trafficking. This is a major escalation of policy, but there is no clear logic to it as explained by this administration to date. Americans are not being readied for what might be expected of this new level of tensions.
What prompted the CIA strike on Venezuela’s port facility?
The covert operation was aimed at a seaport that allegedly was used for loading ships that had ties with drug cartels associated with the Venezuelan government elite. Even though there were no reported killings, the importance of this operation cannot be underestimated, especially given that it was the first operation that was mounted on Venezuelan soil under Trump’s renewed strategy.
This operation has been described by the administration as part of its overall struggle with narcoterrorism, especially with the designation as a foreign terrorist organization of what is known as the “Cartel of the Suns,” supposedly operating within Nicolás Maduro’s established authority. It is claimed that this designation gives the White House a “broad and highly dubious” ground to pursue a military intervention.
Is the US prepared for a wider confrontation?
Even in the face of this escalation, high-level officials in the US government have not indicated the length of time during which the escalating presence of US ships in the Caribbean will continue, nor the missions US military personnel may be called on to perform. An end game has not been expressed either.
The situation has already escalated up a ladder of escalation, beginning with diplomatically orchestrated pressure, proceeding to interdictions at sea, followed by blockades of oil shipments, and now an actual strike on Venezuelan soil. Members of Congress of every party warn that a lack of strategy may contribute to mission creep.
Could the escalation spiral out of control?
According to analysts, any kind of covert operations will lead to more extensive conflicts. Jim Stavridis, former US Admiral Jim Stavridis, says that the CIA operation will add to the impression that the administration’s ultimate goal remains regime change in Venezuela. In such an event, the operations in the future might include the Venezuelan military, air defense systems, and perhaps the leadership. This will have grave political and military implications.
American history says a lot about how particular operations sometimes lead to a different kind of war. This happened in the war in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan.
How does secrecy affect democratic oversight?
The involvement of the CIA within such a relatively simple operation raises issues pertaining to transparency and accountability within the framework of the constitutions of these countries.
Covert operations enable a president to bypass a congressional approval that would otherwise be a necessity in a military operation that is overt. Even though notification takes place within the intelligence committees, the public is left with little knowledge whatsoever. The involvement of Trump within this operation, despite lack of detail, has removed deniability.
How are Venezuelans likely to be affected?
Although there is very little doubt that Maduro’s regime has ruined the economy and impoverished the people of Venezuela, additional military action by the US may very well exacerbate that suffering.
Venezuela already has issues with widespread food shortages, knowledge and access issues in the medical industry, and crumbling infrastructures that could be exacerbated by additional strikes that could affect both military and civilian populations.
What is the human cost behind the geopolitics?
The humanitarian toll in Venezuela is already severe. More than seven million Venezuelans have fled the country over the past decade, making it one of the largest displacement crises in the world. Inside the country, millions struggle with malnutrition, particularly children and the elderly, while preventable diseases are resurging due to shortages of medicine and medical equipment. Any further destabilization of ports or energy infrastructure risks amplifying these hardships and triggering new waves of migration across the region.
How does this fit into Trump’s broader doctrine?
The Trump administration has claimed that its policy is necessary through the application of a kind of “Monroe Doctrine 2.0;” namely, that the US must protect the Western Hemisphere from influence by outside powers and that the US must act effectively to counteract the flow of drugs and migrants.
The newly issued national security strategy explicitly advocates targeted missions and the possible application of lethal force to replace what it has termed “failed law enforcement approaches.” Nevertheless, the application of the “Monroe Doctrine 2.0″ does nothing to alleviate the issues of sovereignty and the power of the US Constitution.
Is the public being adequately informed?
The lack of transparency in Venezuela is not an isolated incident. Trump also announced attacks on Nigeria and threatened Iran without fully disclosing his reasons. This led to perceptions that the Trump presidency is impulsive, using force without much transparency. This is particularly true when it comes to the safety of thousands of US military personnel, who deserve more knowledge about what is being done on their behalf.
