A senior European official attending the World Economic Forum in Davos last week described President Donald Trump’s approach toward Europe as “shock therapy.” After absorbing repeated jolts during the first year of Trump’s second term—over Ukraine, tariffs, accusations of Europe’s “civilizational erasure,” and even Greenland—the official said Europe is shaken but stronger.
The treatment has been painful, but in the official’s view, it is forcing long-overdue change.
What Does ‘Shock Therapy’ Mean in Geopolitical Terms?
When pressed to explain the phrase, the official acknowledged that shock therapy is more commonly associated with medical treatment than international relations. In today’s transatlantic context, however, it refers to the “rapid, disruptive, and painful transitions” imposed on Europe as Trump disrupts decades-old security and trade assumptions.
Europe may not welcome the therapy, but it is increasingly responding to it in ways that are more consequential with each new shock.
Europe’s Long-Recognized Weaknesses
European leaders have long lamented structural deficiencies: weak economic competitiveness, an inability to guarantee their own security, and insufficient political cohesion. These chronic conditions have prevented the continent from converting its considerable assets—450 million people, more than $22 trillion in GDP, and an advanced single market—into real geopolitical power.
That diagnosis has not changed. What has changed is the recognition that, faced with a more transactional and unpredictable United States, Europe must finally address these weaknesses or accept a steady erosion of its global relevance.
The End of the Postwar Comfort Zone
European leaders increasingly accept that they can no longer depend on the post–World War II global order that created the stable environment in which the European Union was built. Trump’s approach has accelerated the dismantling of assumptions about shared values and common cause that sustained the transatlantic alliance for eight decades.
Greenland, Tariffs, and an Unexpected Moment of Unity
Trump’s abrupt retreat in Davos from his ultimatum that Europe either concede Greenland or face tariffs stemmed from multiple pressures, including market anxiety over EU countermeasures, congressional opposition, and weak public support in the United States.
For Europe, the most consequential outcome was political: the episode generated unprecedented unity among all 27 EU member states, including right-wing parties that typically support Trump.
Even after the immediate crisis eased, EU leaders convened an emergency summit in Brussels the following day. Analysts Jörn Fleck and James Batchik of the Atlantic Council described the meeting as evidence of “a quiet yet dogged determination” to strengthen Europe’s ability to withstand future US pressure.
‘This Is a Rupture, Not a Transition’
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney offered one of the clearest diagnoses of the moment in Davos, framing the upheaval as a fundamental break rather than a gradual shift.
“We are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition,”
Carney said, arguing that great powers now weaponize economic integration itself—using tariffs, financial infrastructure, and supply chains as tools of coercion. “You cannot live within the lie of mutual benefit through integration when integration becomes the source of subordination,” he concluded.
Von der Leyen: If Change Is Permanent, Europe Must Be Too
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen placed Carney’s argument into a broader historical frame, linking today’s disruption to the shocks of World War I, World War II, and the Cold War that shaped modern Europe.
Without naming Trump directly, she argued that nostalgia for the old transatlantic order is no longer viable.
“Nostalgia will not bring back the old order,”
she said.
“And playing for time… will not fix the structural dependencies we have.”
“If this change is permanent,”
she added,
“then Europe must change permanently, too.”
Trade as Europe’s Strategic Countermove
While Washington focused on Europe’s vulnerabilities, the EU has been using the Trump moment to accelerate trade diversification. Von der Leyen arrived in Davos from Paraguay, where she signed the EU–Mercosur agreement, creating what she called the world’s largest free trade zone—31 countries, more than 700 million consumers, and over 20% of global GDP.
Her message was unmistakable: Europe is choosing
“fair trade over tariffs, partnership over isolation, sustainability over exploitation,”
and is serious about de-risking and diversifying supply chains.
De-Risking No Longer Just About China
De-risking, once a concept applied primarily to China, is now increasingly used by European leaders in reference to the United States. In Davos, several US companies privately complained that European officials canceled meetings as a political signal.
One US business leader said EU regulators are openly discussing reducing dependence on American technology firms, social media platforms, and payment giants over the next three to five years. US companies with deep European exposure are increasingly alarmed that their partners are planning paths forward without them.
Hedging Toward China and the Global South
Despite persistent concerns about China, European leaders believe strategic hedging is necessary to signal to Washington that alternatives exist. Visits to Beijing are accelerating: Carney traveled there just before Davos, while British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz are expected soon. French President Emmanuel Macron, who visited China in December, said Europe should seek greater Chinese foreign direct investment.
Von der Leyen also highlighted recent trade agreements with Mexico, Indonesia, and Switzerland, with Australia soon to follow, alongside advancing talks with the Philippines, Thailand, Malaysia, and the United Arab Emirates. She is currently in India, which turned to the EU after being hit by Trump-era tariffs.
The ‘Mother of All Deals’ With India?
Von der Leyen said Europe is nearing a landmark trade agreement with India, describing it—using unusually Trump-like language—as “the mother of all deals.”
Such an agreement would create a market of two billion people, nearly a quarter of global GDP, and give Europe a first-mover advantage in one of the world’s fastest-growing economies.
Defense Spending Surges Across Europe
At the same time, EU member states have committed to roughly €800 billion in additional defense spending through 2030. According to von der Leyen, that commitment has already tripled the market value of European defense companies since January 2022, making them among the strongest-performing investments globally.
“This now only shows how economy and national security are more linked than ever,”
she said,
“and what we can do when Europeans have the will to match the ambition.”
Economic Integration Gains New Urgency
Another key takeaway from Davos was renewed momentum behind deeper European economic integration. Josh Lipsky of the Atlantic Council said the long-stalled savings and investment union is now on a fast track, with Trump’s unpredictability acting as a catalyst.
“The realization that the US can’t always be relied on as an economic partner has put new urgency in the minds of finance officials,”
Lipsky said.
Even NATO Credits Trump’s Pressure
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, who helped defuse what could have become the most severe transatlantic crisis in decades, gave Trump unexpected credit in Davos.
“I’m not popular with you now because I’m defending Donald Trump,”
Rutte said,
“but he has forced us in Europe to step up. Without Donald Trump, this would never have happened.”
A Stronger Europe—or a Temporary Reaction?
Whether Europe’s newfound resolve will endure beyond Davos remains uncertain. The author, a committed Atlanticist, regrets the harshness of the therapy but hopes it produces a stronger, more confident Europe within a renewed transatlantic partnership capable of meeting 21st-century challenges.
The risk is that even harsher shocks—potentially administered by autocratic powers such as Russia and China—may be required if democratic allies fail to consolidate these gains.
Shock Therapy’s Final Test
In medicine, shock therapy does not heal by itself; it interrupts a dangerous equilibrium and creates space for recovery. Applied geopolitically, Trump’s jolt has shattered decades of European strategic complacency, forcing overdue decisions on defense, trade, and autonomy.
Whether Europe survives—and thrives—will depend not on the shock itself, but on the sustained care that follows.
