Russia’s stance seemed obvious after Israel launched what it called precautionary assaults on Iranian military and nuclear installations last week. In reference to Iran, the Moscow Ministry of Foreign Affairs denounced what it described as unjustified military attacks on a legitimate UN member state.
The Kremlin, which has a long-standing alliance with Iran, has called for a diplomatic resolution to the conflict. Since the start of the fighting on Friday, Israeli assaults on Iran have killed over 220 individuals, while Iranian counterattacks have killed 24.
Bashar al-Assad, the former president of Syria, was a friend of both Russia and Iran, and both countries supported him in the Syrian conflict until his final defeat late last year. In addition to providing Russia with Shahed kamikaze drones to deploy against Ukrainian targets, Iran reportedly sent Russia hundreds of short-range, precise Fath-360 ballistic missiles last year. The degree of Russia’s support for Iran should not be exaggerated.
Will Russia risk arming Iran against Israeli interests?
The Iran-Israel confrontation is unlikely to have an impact on Russia’s own combat capability because it now manufactures its own Shahed drones under license. In response, the Iranians had higher expectations of Russia. In addition to nuclear, they anticipated a far greater number of aviation, military, and space technologies.
However, Russia took its time sharing since it is crucial for Moscow to preserve peace in the Middle East and its ties with Israel. Furthermore, if Russia starts arming Iran, it is impossible to deny that these weapons may be used against Israel, something that the Kremlin does not desire. Despite the fact that Moscow and Tehran inked a strategic partnership deal this year, Russia is not required to defend Iran.
Could Putin use this conflict to boost diplomacy?
According to some commentators, Putin has a chance to demonstrate his diplomatic prowess during the Israel-Iran conflict. Russia is objectively one of the platforms most amenable to compromise because of its positive connections with both nations, and Vladimir Putin has already offered mediation.
Since Syria’s power shift, the Kremlin’s sway over the Middle East has diminished, and it already has a lot on its plate. In Ukraine, Russia itself need middlemen.
The conflict in Ukraine will not be immediately impacted by the Middle East scenario. However, it is clearly to the Kremlin’s advantage that the international community, particularly the West, is now focusing on anything other than Ukraine. In light of this, Putin is free to launch another attack in Ukraine. Russia is walking a tightrope to maintain its ties with President Benjamin Netanyahu’s administration, while the liberal opposition, which leans Western, has generally backed Israel.
How close is the alliance between Iran and Russia?
Israel and Russia have complex connections. Despite its early backing for the establishment of the state of Israel, the Soviet Union subsequently sided with Arab countries and the Palestinian cause.
Even if its connection with Israel balances its support for Palestine, Russia still refuses to designate Hamas as a “terrorist organization.” In contrast, Israel is worried about the survival and safety of the Jewish population in Russia.
Russia and Israel have an agreement in Syria wherein Moscow ignored Israeli actions against its ally, Iranian-backed Hezbollah. For its part, Israel refrained from arming Ukraine and provoking Moscow or imposing sanctions. But this calculation changed when al-Assad’s administration fell.
