Anxiety is growing in several Gulf Arab states that the mounting pressure from President Donald Trump on Iran may be pushing the United States towards taking military action, even as these countries are calling for restraint and a diplomatic solution. Diplomats from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, and Turkiye have told Washington that they are worried that any military strike against Iran could lead to a larger conflict.
The White House has offered little assurance that it will take the Gulf states’ advice, leaving capitals to wonder if the United States’ mounting rhetoric and military preparations may be making a strike more likely, rather than less.
How Has US Military Presence in the Gulf Escalated?
Trump has been moving significant military resources of the United States towards the Persian Gulf in recent weeks as a reaction to tensions with Iran. The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group, accompanied by guided-missile destroyers and littoral combat ships, has also been moved to the area, along with other military resources, which Trump himself called a “strong armada” that is even larger than the one that was moved towards Venezuela.
This is reminiscent of the same military build-up that took place before the United States and its allies launched attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities in 2025.
What Are Gulf States Most Worried About?
1. Regional Instability and Economic Fallout
Arab allies fear that any military strike on Iran would have immediate destabilizing effects, including:
- Retaliatory attacks by Tehran on US forces and bases throughout the region, including Gulf states that host them.
- Disruptions to global energy markets, since approximately 25% of the world’s oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz — a chokepoint Iran could easily threaten.
- Damage to regional business, tourism and infrastructure in countries already balancing fragile economic recoveries.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE have publicly pledged that their airspace will not be used for any attack on Iran, underscoring their desire to avoid being drawn into hostilities.
2. Fear of Iranian Retaliation
Iran has warned that any US offensive would prompt retaliatory strikes on American bases across the region, including in Qatar, the UAE and Saudi Arabia, adding to Gulf concerns about being unwilling battlegrounds.
3. Diplomatic and Public Pressure for Restraint
Arab governments are also engaging directly with Tehran through back-channel diplomacy to reduce tensions, arguing force would be disastrous. Qatar, Oman, Turkey and Saudi Arabia have all communicated their concerns to both Washington and Tehran, pushing for negotiations rather than conflict.
What Are Trump’s Public Signals?
While Trump continues to emphasize a “more than capable” US military presence in the Gulf, he has publicly framed the pressure on Iran as aimed at securing diplomatic outcomes:
“If we do make a deal, that’s good. If we don’t make a deal, we’ll see what happens,”
Trump told reporters, underlining that he believes Iran wants a deal — even as he keeps military options open.
Earlier statements by Trump urged Iranian protestors that
“help is on the way,”
a vague promise that has contributed to regional confusion about U.S. objectives.
Are Trump’s Gulf Allies Unified in Their Concern?
Not entirely. While most Gulf states have counseled restraint, their motivations vary:
- Saudi Arabia and the UAE have strengthened defense ties with the US but remain cautious about direct involvement in a new war.
- Oman and Qatar have historically acted as mediators and are particularly vocal about avoiding escalation that might hurt their diplomatic standing and economies.
Even so, none have unequivocally endorsed a US strike on Iran, signaling a shift from past decades when Gulf states were more inclined to support American efforts to contain Tehran.
What Are the Risks of a Military Confrontation?
Experts and regional officials warn that a US attack on Iran could trigger:
- Wider conflict with Iranian proxies, including in Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen, compounding existing instability.
- Economic repercussions through disrupted oil exports and military engagements around major shipping routes.
- Domestic backlash in Gulf states, where populations may resist being drawn into a protracted war not seen as in their direct interest.
For Gulf capitals, the dilemma is stark: support an increasingly confrontational US stance, or prioritize regional stability at the risk of undermining long-standing security partnerships.
Is There Still Room for Diplomacy?
Despite rising tensions, there remain diplomatic avenues. Iran’s leadership has expressed openness to talks that address nuclear concerns — though it rejects negotiations that constrain its defensive capabilities.
Arab states continue to emphasize restraint from both Washington and Tehran, arguing that a negotiated solution remains far preferable to a military confrontation that could engulf the broader region.
