An internal Vietnamese military document shows that, despite rapidly improving diplomatic ties with Washington, Hanoi’s defense establishment is preparing for the possibility of an American “war of aggression” and continues to view the United States as a potential “belligerent” power.
The document, analyzed in a report released Tuesday by the human rights organization The 88 Project, underscores a profound disconnect between Vietnam’s outward diplomatic engagement with the U.S. and its internal security assessments.
Fear of ‘Color Revolution’ Shapes Military Thinking
Beyond concerns about direct military conflict, the document highlights Vietnam’s long-standing fear that foreign powers—particularly the United States—could foment internal unrest to destabilize Communist Party rule.
Vietnamese planners repeatedly reference the threat of so-called “color revolutions,” such as Ukraine’s 2004 Orange Revolution and the Philippines’ 1986 Yellow Revolution, viewing them as models of regime change driven by Western influence.
“This isn’t paranoia from a fringe faction,”
said Ben Swanton, co-director of The 88 Project and author of the analysis.
“There is a consensus across ministries that the United States poses a systemic threat to regime stability.”
‘The 2nd U.S. Invasion Plan’
The central document, titled “The 2nd U.S. Invasion Plan,” was completed by Vietnam’s Ministry of Defense in August 2024. It argues that in pursuit of deterring China, Washington and its allies are prepared to employ unconventional warfare, political destabilization, and even large-scale military intervention against countries that “deviate from its orbit.”
Although the authors acknowledge that
“currently there is little risk of a war against Vietnam,”
they warn that America’s “belligerent nature” requires constant vigilance to prevent the creation of a pretext for intervention.
The document characterizes U.S. strategy across three administrations—from Barack Obama through Donald Trump’s first term and into Joe Biden’s presidency—as a continuous effort to strengthen military and political alignments in Asia to contain China.
Strategic Partnership vs. Strategic Suspicion
The document stands in stark contrast to public diplomacy. In 2023, the United States and Vietnam signed a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, elevating bilateral ties to Vietnam’s highest diplomatic category—on par with China and Russia.
U.S. officials framed the move as a sign of mutual trust and shared strategic interests. Vietnamese military planners, however, interpret Washington’s intentions differently.
According to the document, while the U.S. sees Vietnam as “a partner and an important link,” it also seeks to impose Western values related to democracy, human rights, religion, and ethnicity—steps the military views as a gradual attempt to undermine Vietnam’s socialist system.
Swanton described the document as one of the clearest insights yet into Hanoi’s real foreign policy calculations.
“Far from viewing the U.S. as a strategic partner, the military sees it as an existential threat,”
he wrote.
“Vietnam has no intention of joining an anti-China alliance.”
Official Silence, Diplomatic Reassurance
Vietnam’s Foreign Ministry did not respond to requests for comment on the report or the leaked document.
The U.S. State Department declined to address the document directly but emphasized the importance of the bilateral partnership.
“A strong, prosperous, independent and resilient Vietnam benefits both our countries,”
the department said, adding that the partnership helps ensure a
“stable, secure, free and open Indo-Pacific.”
A Window Into Internal Power Struggles
Analysts say the document reflects enduring tensions within Vietnam’s leadership. Nguyen Khac Giang of Singapore’s ISEAS–Yusof Ishak Institute said the military and conservative factions within the Communist Party have long been wary of closer ties with Washington.
“The military has never been fully comfortable with the Comprehensive Strategic Partnership,”
Giang said, noting its historical sensitivity to regime-security threats.
Those tensions became public in June 2024, when an army television channel accused U.S.-linked Fulbright University Vietnam of fomenting a color revolution—an allegation later rejected by the Foreign Ministry.
Long Memory of War and Deep Distrust
Vietnam’s military retains a powerful institutional memory of the war with the United States that ended in 1975. While Western diplomats often assume Hanoi’s primary security concern is China, the document reinforces earlier policy papers suggesting Vietnam’s leadership fears internal destabilization more than external invasion.
Trust has also been undermined by cuts to U.S. Agency for International Development programs under President Donald Trump, which disrupted efforts to clean up Agent Orange contamination and unexploded American munitions—issues that remain politically and emotionally sensitive in Vietnam.
Trump’s Second Term: Opportunity and Anxiety
Under Communist Party leader To Lam, who rose to power around the time the document was written, Vietnam has moved to strengthen ties with Washington, particularly under Trump’s second administration.
Lam was reappointed party general secretary last month and is widely expected to assume the presidency, consolidating power to an extent not seen in decades.
Economic ties have accelerated. Trump’s family business has begun construction on a $1.5 billion Trump-branded golf and luxury real estate project in northern Hung Yen province. Lam also swiftly accepted Trump’s invitation to join the Board of Peace—an unusually fast decision in a system known for cautious, consensus-driven diplomacy.
New U.S. Military Actions Revive Old Fears
Yet Trump’s aggressive foreign policy has reignited anxieties among Vietnam’s conservative and military elites. His military operation to capture former Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro has been cited internally as evidence of Washington’s willingness to use force against sovereign governments.
Analysts warn that any future U.S. military action involving Cuba—one of Vietnam’s closest allies—could further destabilize Hanoi’s delicate strategic balancing act between Washington, Beijing, and traditional partners.
Dual-Track Strategy Persists
Taken together, the documents reveal Vietnam’s enduring dual-track approach: expanding economic and diplomatic engagement with the United States while quietly preparing for the possibility that Washington could one day turn from partner to threat.
For Vietnam’s military planners, history—and ideology—continue to outweigh diplomatic symbolism.
