A weekend of intense bombing and response is casting doubt on Israel’s exit plan and how it would conclude this conflict with its lofty objectives met, despite the country’s astonishing early triumphs in its unprecedented assault on Iran.
Dozens of Israelis have been killed and maimed in retaliatory Iranian assaults, while Israeli war planes nearly unopposedly bombard Iranian military and nuclear installations. The United States is now reluctant to participate in an attack on Iran, although aiding Israel in defending against Iranian missile strikes. This forces Israel to reevaluate the potential of its military actions.
Can military action weaken Iran’s nuclear resolve?
Experts say the conclusion will be diplomatic rather than military, and Israel hopes that its continued military action would make Iran less able to negotiate in any future nuclear negotiations. The same idea that Israeli military action will compel an enemy to compromise hasn’t worked to get Hamas in Gaza to give in. However, just bringing up the prospect of Iranian discussions points to a change in perspective.
Israel’s intentions were very obvious from the beginning of last week’s historic assault on Iran. The goal was to eliminate the existential nuclear and ballistic missile threats to the Islamic Republic for good. The source also stressed that there would be no deadline for achieving that military goal.
Why is the US refusing to attack Iran?
Israel’s goal, which was always heavily reliant on the US military supporting Israel, has now collided with the US’s unwillingness to become involved in another conflict in the Middle East. However, President Donald Trump has maintained to disassociate himself from the carnage and is still hesitant to send the US into another conflict in the Middle East, at least in public.
Along with rejecting an Israeli plot to assassinate Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Trump is adamant that he is committed to mediating a resolution to the issue rather than becoming involved.
How long can Israel act without US support?
Israel has been successful in eliminating important nuclear scientists and targeting enrichment plants, but it is still unable to cause Iran’s nuclear program to suffer long-term harm. Deep underground are some of the most significant sites, such as the Fordow enrichment complex in northern Iran, which is housed inside a mountain.
Without US military assistance, such as logistical support and firepower to destroy bunkers, Iran’s capabilities might withstand even an extended Israeli bombardment. The Israeli method also has another drawback.
Will bombing Iran’s facilities achieve long-term goals?
Even if all the facilities were destroyed, a dictatorship with institutional nuclear know-how might ultimately rebuild them. Furthermore, the Iranian leadership may reasonably conclude that a nuclear deterrent—rather than a new nuclear agreement—is its best line of defense against future attacks if it survives the current assault.
However, even the most unpopular administrations may be rallied by intensive bombing attacks. Less than a week has passed since the situation began to escalate, so a lot might still change.
It’s not the first time, though, that Israel finds itself embroiled in a conflict with no obvious way out. Although there is still no clear strategy for what will happen next, its continuing war in Gaza, which was started in 2023 in response to the October 7 bombings, aims to destroy Hamas and secure the release of all the hostages being held. Israelis now have to contend with yet another bloody, perilous attrition war that has no end in sight.
