The Yemeni government forces, in partnership with Saudi Arabia, have regained control of the eastern provinces of Hadramout and Al-Mahra from the Southern Transitional Council, led by the United Arab Emirates, in a move that reflects a new dynamic in a war in Yemen that is increasingly influenced by the rivalry between two of its principal Gulf Arab powers.
The appearance of the advancement of the Yemni forces backed by Saudi Arabia seems to have swung the dynamics back into the favor of the STC that last month seized large parts of southern Yemen with ease with the support of Abu Dhabi. This latest situation seems to have reinforced fears that Yemen is being turned into a battleground between regional ambitions.
How did Yemen’s internal conflict turn into a Saudi-UAE proxy clash?
The Southern Transitional Council, which fights for an independent state in southern Yemen, has undertaken a swift offensive in early December, capturing Hadramout and al-Mahra, two massive provinces which cumulatively represent almost half of Yemen’s territory, as well as having a significant border with Saudi Arabia. This development has perturbed Saudi Arabia’s government because it sees any enemy entity near its borders as posing a threat to its security.
Saudi Arabia, one of the US’s strongest allies, as well as a partner to the war effort in Yemen, has increasingly found itself on a collision course with UAE, with whom they have competing agendas for the future of Yemen. While Saudi Arabia has supported the internationally recognized government, UAE has built local militias, such as STC, to take control of southern Yemen.
Why did Saudi Arabia intervene after initially standing aside?
Saudi Arabia seemed to have tolerated the STC’s expansion, despite the knowledge that the secessionist group had managed to consolidate their hold over eastern Yemen. However, that changed when Saudi forces struck a shipment that was reportedly from the UAE, marking a significant deterioration in Saudi-UAE relations.
The Saudi Foreign Ministry has accused the STC of being a direct threat to national security, calling UAE’s moves “highly dangerous.” However, after this strike, there came a turn where the Saudi military launched its assault on separatists in favor of reclaiming territory for Saudi control.
How did Yemeni government forces regain Hadramout and al-Mahra?
The following days saw operatives of the forces supporting Saudi Arabia and the internationally recognized government of Yemen carry out simultaneous operations in the provinces of Hadramout and al-Mahra. According to the Minister of Information of Yemen, Moamar Al Eryani, the Yemen government took control of important locations in both provinces back.
Rashad al-Alimi, head of the Presidential Leadership Council, stated that the Homeland Shield forces, backed by the Saudi-led coalition, had been highly successful in re-capturing the entire military and security locations in the province of Hadramout, especially the border with Saudi Arabia. This was followed by the recapture of the strategic port city of Mukalla, the capital of the province of Hadramout, which was occupied by the STC only a few weeks prior to the battle.
Government sources reported to Al Jazeera Arabic government control over all districts in the governorate of Hadramout, the largest in Yemen. Mohammed Omar Suwailam, an official in al-Mahra, reported to Asharq al-Awsat daily the takeover of all nine districts of the governorate after the withdrawal of forces of the STC.
What role did Saudi airpower play in the fighting?
The ground attack was accompanied by Saudi airstrikes. These were described as “intense” by the STC. According to an STC militant quoted in AFP, Saudi warplanes launched fierce attacks against an STC base in Barshid, west of the city of Mukalla.
At least 80 fighters from the Southern Tunisian Current (STC) have lost their lives since Friday in fighting with forces loyal to the Saudi-led coalition, an official with the group said. More than 150 others had been injured in the fighting, with around 130 others being held as captives.
How does this escalation reshape Yemen’s fractured political landscape?
Ahmed al-Shalafi, a Yemen affairs editor for Al Jazeera, said that the last 24 hours have dramatically changed the political and military balance in Yemen. “The Yemeni Army and the Homeland Shield forces have directly intervened to settle the crisis militarily before political efforts followed,” he said.
Since then, the STC has been invited by the government to Saudi Arabia for talks, in what appeared to be a bid by Riyadh to translate recent military gains into a negotiated outcome. Yemen has been effectively divided for nearly a decade with separate administrations, central banks and currencies in the north and south, with the internationally recognised government exercising limited authority on the ground.
What does the situation look like on the ground in retaken areas?
By Sunday, major convoys of Nation Shield Forces backed by Saudi had entered Mukalla, securing governmental institutions, as well as flying the national flag. According to local sources, normal life was slowly returning to the important city of Seiyun within Hadramout, where state institutions had begun to reopen along with the provision of public services.
Hadramout Governor Salem Ahmed Said al-Khanbashi has arrived in Seiyun after the coup, marking the government’s intention for restoring administrative control. Flights were partially resumed in Aden International Airport following its temporary shutdown due to security reasons by both sides.
Why do tensions persist in southern Yemen despite battlefield gains?
Although the government has made progress in the eastern part of the country, there are still high levels of tension in the rest of southern Yemen, especially in the region of Aden, where the STC has its base. The Yemen government accused the STC of illegally restricting the freedom of movement in the seaport city and arresting travelers while also blocking people from reaching families or ill people.
In a strongly-worded press release, the Yemen Government condemned these practices for violating its constitution and also violating the terms of the Riyadh Agreement, insisting that the STC immediately rescind all restrictions while The Government would do everything in its powers to safeguard its civilians and ensure freedom of movement.
What comes next for southern Yemen?
A meeting in Riyadh has been offered by Saudi Arabia as a proposal for a diplomatic gathering of all factions of Yemen for the discussion of “just solutions for the southern issue.” The proposal has been welcomed by the STC, which has termed the meeting a “genuine opportunity” for the southern vision amid continued fighting.
Reuters received confirmation from a Yemeni government source of possible further Yemeni forces moves from Hadramout towards the city of Aden, portending future battles before negotiations are possible. Already, Yemen’s future of stability appears clouded between the hold of the Houthis in the north and the Gulf allies.
With the heightening rivalry between the regions and the subsequent positioning of the domestic actors, the current events underscore the extent to which the conflict in Yemen represents more than a Yemeni issue, representing a very thin frontline in the battle for the control of the Gulf itself.
