The return of President-elect Donald Trump to the White House is likely to cause trouble and tension in Europe due to fears that he will resolve the Ukraine conflict on conditions that benefit Russia. It is reported that the incoming president’s team has floated proposals to cede territory to its neighbor and remove Ukraine from NATO membership in the future.
President-elect Donald Trump’s NATO standing would be in direct resistance to the alliance’s stated stance that Ukraine is on an “irreversible path” to guaranteeing membership and poses the risk of provoking a high-profile disagreement with allies and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte.
NATO Secretary General already seems to be preparing for Trump’s tactics and has openly uttered of making Ukraine’s hand “stronger” at the bargaining table with Russia by encouraging partners to boost military aid obligations and increase defense production across Europe.
In spite of not specifically mentioning Trump’s purported peace plan ideas, he has emphasized the need to prevent a “bad deal” for Ukraine from going ahead by saying that “what you can never have is high-fiving” between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. As well as being crucial to the long-term defense and security of Europe and the US, he emphasized that the peace deal must be fit for purpose, too.
It is likely that Trump’s dislike of NATO will lead to apprehension about the fate of the alliance. Yet it is too early to know if, for the third successive time, Trump threatens to take the US out of the institution. Since then, Congress has passed legislation to prevent the President from making a similar action without the Senate’s consent or by virtue of an Act of Congress. In this instance, Trump’s hands are not entirely tied because he can employ the power of the presidency over foreign policy as a circumvention.
It appears that Europe’s military spending will increase as a result of measures enacted or expected, notably from Poland and the Baltic countries, alongside actions like France and the UK examining sending troops to Ukraine, appear to indicate that the continent will attempt to be more self-reliant on military issues. There can be little doubt that Europe will be adversely affected if Trump’s instincts are acted on.
