There is increasing recognition that Turkey can play a key role in restructuring European security as Europe seeks to strengthen its defence and find assurances for Ukraine under any forthcoming ceasefire agreement urged by Washington.
European nations have been troubled by U.S. President Donald Trump’s strategy to conclude the Ukraine war, which has shifted Washington’s policy, discontinued Russia’s isolation with the possibility of reconciliation, piled pressure on Ukraine after disastrous exchanges with Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and risked transatlantic relations.
Why is Europe reconsidering its stance on Turkey?
Europeans’ sincere desire to preserve Ukraine’s military capabilities and agree to security guarantees while expanding its own defence without the US has formed a rare opportunity for Turkey to strengthen connections with Europe despite abiding disputes over the rule of law, maritime problems with Greece and Cyprus, and Ankara’s protracted European Union membership proposal.
European powers that assumed they had the extravagance of exempting Turkey until today are now noticing that they cannot exclude Turkey anymore. Recently, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk expressed he brought a “clear proposal for Turkey to take on the greatest possible co-responsibility” for peace in Ukraine and regional stability.
How has Erdogan balanced ties with Ukraine and Russia?
Ankara had very important ideas on what is required for peace in Ukraine. Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan successfully managed his relationship with Zelenskiy and Russian President Vladimir Putin during the fighting. Turkey has the second-largest army. It has started producing its own tanks, jets and naval carriers, and produces drones that are sold globally, including to Ukraine. It exported $7.1 billion worth of defence goods in 2024.
Turkish President Erdogan and Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan have expressed Europe must include Turkey in the reformation of its security architecture in a “sustainable and deterrent” way.
A Turkish source said there were no clear pursuits yet on a new European security architecture or Turkey’s possible assistance to it, but certain measures could advance cooperation.
“Instead of including Turkey in projects in an a la carte’ way, it would be more logical (for Europe) to seek partnerships more holistically. For example, they can start by including Turkey in the European Peace Facility program,” the source said.
A Turkish Defence Ministry official said Europe and Ankara had shared interests, from counter-terrorism to migration, and Turkey’s full involvement in EU defence measures was critical for Europe to be a global actor, saying Turkey was willing to do what it could support form the new security framework.
Why is Turkey’s relationship with Russia a challenge for Europe?
However, Turkey’s posture towards Russia remains an ordeal, as Ankara declined to impose sanctions after Moscow invaded Ukraine and still shares strong connections in tourism, energy and trade.
The most important issue that will come before Turkey is the issue of relations with Russia because the core of Europe’s security framework begins by considering Russia as a threat.
Turkey has also supported Ukraine militarily and expressed support for its territorial integrity and sovereignty. It arranged peace discussions in the first weeks of the war and proposed to host future talks while striving to revive an agreement on Black Sea navigational safety.
Moreover, a Turkish Defence Ministry source stated Ankara could think of lending its support to a potential peacekeeping mission in Ukraine if a ceasefire is announced. Turkey’s armed forces chief of staff, Metin Gurak, took part in a conference of European army chiefs in Paris this month and engaged with counterparts from the UK and France, who have also examined deploying soldiers.
