Recently, a significant new US aid package has boosted Ukrainian confidence considerably and sparked fresh positiveness over the country’s military prospects. Indeed, the shift in tone across Ukraine and among the country’s allies in recent days has been palpable. During the previous six months, the scope of the war had grown increasingly negative as declining Western backing forced Ukraine’s outgunned front-line troops and air defence forces to ration dwindling supplies of ammunition. With the foremost deliveries of US weapons anticipated to reach the front almost immediately, there is now continued talk of regaining the battlefield endeavour.
The $61 billion package embraced by the US Congress will provide Ukraine with a wide spectrum of weapons that should enable the government to prevent any major Russian breakthroughs in the future months. However, it is only a short-term explanation of Russia’s overwhelming benefits in both weapons and manpower. To convince Putin that his attack cannot succeed, US and European leaders must assume a much more methodical long-term approach to providing the Ukrainian military. This support is required to be secured against the shifting political winds in various Western capitals.
Since late 2023, the adverse impact of delaying military aid to Ukraine has been all too clear. With Ukrainian troops usually at a ten-to-one disadvantage in spans of artillery firepower, Russia has been able to progress at various points along the approximately 1000-kilometre front line of the war, seizing the town of Avdiivka in February and pushing additional forward in recent weeks. Russian commanders have also brought advantage of increasing gaps in Ukraine’s air defences to establish a new bombing campaign targeting the country’s cities and civilian energy infrastructure. This has directed to the destruction of multiple power plants, sparkling fears of an imminent humanitarian catastrophe.
As soon as it starts to arrive in the coming days, US aid will go some way to managing the most immediate challenges confronting Ukraine. The package agreed this week in Washington DC includes air defence systems and interceptor ammunition that will assist protect residential areas and critical infrastructure from further Russian bombardment. Likewise, the delivery of artillery shells and long-range missiles should make it far more challenging for the Russian army to progress and occupy additional Ukrainian territory. Russian dominance of the atmospheres above the battlefields of eastern and southern Ukraine will also soon become increasingly contested.
At the same time, this latest US military aid package will not supply Ukraine with anything like the quantities it requires to defeat Russia. This has been a concern ever since the start of the Russian invasion in February 2022. While the West has delivered significant amounts of military aid, weapons have invariably been delivered to Ukraine after comprehensive delays and in insufficient quantities. The first session of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group, which conveys together more than 50 countries in backing Ukraine, did not take place until more than two months after the beginning of Russia’s invasion. It would be almost a year before NATO member countries decided to supply Ukraine with a mediocre number of modern tanks. With the invasion currently in its third year, Ukraine is still lingering for the arrival of the first F-16 fighter jets.
The underwhelming international reaction to Russia’s invasion has led to indictments that Ukraine’s partners seek to deliver Kyiv with sufficient weapons to evade defeat but not enough to win. This cautious strategy is primarily due to the West’s well-historical fear of escalation. It also echoes widespread worries over the potentially destabilizing geopolitical developments of a Ukrainian victory.
