Experts say that even if Benjamin Netanyahu is successful in convincing the Trump administration to join the war in the following days and weeks, Israel’s attack on Iran, including its nuclear and ballistic missiles development, is unlikely to fulfill its long-term strategic objectives.
Can Israel achieve its strategic goals in Iran?
Diplomats, military experts, and security analysts predict that Israel and its prime minister will encounter increasing challenges in the campaign, amid concerns that it might potentially destabilize the region.
Israel’s ability to maintain a long-range offensive that has left its cities vulnerable to ballistic missile counterattacks has also come into question, as has the possibility that even the US’s use of massive ground-penetrating bombs would be insufficient to destroy Iran’s Fordow nuclear facility, which is buried deep beneath a mountain.
Experts distinguish between Israel’s operational accomplishment in dismantling its nuclear program and its strategic goals, which seem to have extended to include overthrowing the Iranian leadership in Tehran. Additionally, analysts are perplexed by an Israeli policy that seems to have gambled on starting a confrontation in the hopes of persuading Donald Trump, the extremely unpredictable US president, to participate, providing Israel with the weaponry it needs in the form of huge bunker-busting bombs.
In a complicated and risky operation that is not guaranteed to succeed, experts estimate that the US would likely need to use multiple of these bombs, which would need to be dropped relatively close to the Fordow plant, protected by up to 90 meters of bedrock. This would likely provoke retaliation from Iran against US bases, increasing the risk of further escalation.
The area is already deeply alarmed by the possibility of regime change, possibly by the assassination of Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which Israeli officials have brought up (and Trump is said to have opposed).
Could this conflict provoke wider regional escalation?
In a rare intervention, leading Iraqi theologian Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani warned of the region’s grave risks. If Netanyahu has made a mistake, it has been in his long-professed ability to understand and manipulate US politics.
Given the low polling of American support for US action and the potential for the issue to splinter Trump’s MAGA movement, Israel may end up on the losing side of a divisive debate that is far more important to Trump than supporting Netanyahu.
Given signs that it is running low on some missile interceptors, Israel is expected to face increasing difficulties unless the US steps in to back its effort. Israel’s capacity to sustain a protracted fight at the current high level of intensity is expected to be hampered by crew weariness from long-distance flights, aircraft maintenance cycles, and the depletion of prepared target lists. Tehran will utilize any drop-off to imply to Iranians that it has survived the brunt of the storm.
Trump has indicated that diplomacy has more time to run, given that he has reestablished contact with Iranian negotiators and held discussions with European nations in Geneva on Friday.
Israel may discover that even if Iran is compelled to sign a nuclear agreement, there are significant unstated consequences, including the possibility of a clerical dictatorship surviving and becoming much more antagonistic toward Israel and Israelis, as well as the potential exposure of Israeli military capabilities.
