The bold move by the Trump administration on January 3, which brought an end to the reign of power of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, was not only a bold move in Latin America but a stinging blow to the position of Russia globally. This was the second time the United States, under the leadership of President Donald Trump, has shown that it is able to attack a Kremlin-backed leader without fear of reprisal.
Yet only a short while ago, Washington delivered a serious setback to Iran’s nuclear program, another crucial Russian ally. This happens in both instances when Russian President Vladimir Putin had no choice but to resort to outraged rhetoric instead of taking substantive measures. The Venezuelan operation has only strengthened this kind of understanding: The Russian ability to safeguard its allies is not what it pretends to be.
Why did Moscow fail to back Maduro when it mattered?
As US pressure on Caracas intensified in the fall, Maduro reportedly sought direct military assistance from Moscow. According to The Washington Post, he wrote to Putin in October requesting drones, missiles, and radar systems. None were delivered.
Since the US operation, Putin himself has remained conspicuously silent. But the Russian response thus far consists of a phone call from the Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, to the interim Venezuelan President Delcy Rodríguez, and statements of “solidarity” with the Venezuelan people, and a demand for the US to free Nicolas Maduro. Apart from this, there has been nothing concrete, nothing like the deployment of the military, or the implementation of economic measures.
Are Russia’s military limits finally impossible to ignore?
Russia’s muted response is rooted in hard reality. While Moscow remains a nuclear superpower, its conventional military capacity is strained to the breaking point. The war in Ukraine—now grinding on with no clear end—has exposed systemic weaknesses in Russia’s armed forces, even close to home.
Ukraine remains Putin’s overriding priority, consuming enormous military, financial, and political resources. The conflict has hollowed out Russia’s economy and left little room for new foreign adventures. Even prominent Russian war bloggers have acknowledged that Moscow simply lacks the capacity to intervene meaningfully elsewhere.
This constraint was evident even before Trump’s second term began. In late 2024, Russia watched helplessly as its longtime ally Bashar al-Assad lost control of Syria to Islamist rebels, ending a half-century strategic relationship. Venezuela now appears to have followed the same trajectory.
Is Putin avoiding confrontation with Trump to protect his Ukraine strategy?
Material weakness alone does not explain the Kremlin’s caution. Equally important is Putin’s calculation that antagonizing Trump could jeopardize Russia’s position in Ukraine. Trump has repeatedly warned that he would apply maximum pressure to whichever side obstructs peace efforts.
Kyiv has accepted multiple US-backed proposals to end the war. Moscow has rejected them all. Yet through careful diplomacy—and Trump’s apparent desire to avoid escalation—Russia has so far escaped a new wave of sweeping US sanctions and more advanced American weapons deliveries to Ukraine.
From Putin’s perspective, Venezuela is not worth spending scarce political capital with a US president who has already signaled frustration over continued bloodshed in Ukraine.
Could Venezuela’s oil further weaken Russia’s economy?
Ironically, the Venezuela operation may still hurt Russia in a more indirect but profound way. Putin’s economy depends heavily on oil and gas revenues, already under pressure from Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on Russian energy infrastructure.
Trump has indicated that he wants Venezuelan oil—currently under strict sanctions—back on the global market. While this process will take time, increased supply would help drive down global oil prices, directly undermining Russia’s primary source of income. For a war economy already under strain, this could prove deeply damaging.
What happens to Moscow’s long investment in Caracas?
Russia’s ties to Venezuela have been extensive and expensive. Since 1999, Moscow has supplied more than $20 billion in military equipment to Caracas, often financed through loans secured by stakes in Venezuela’s oil sector. Those investments now appear largely worthless.
Maduro’s capture is particularly humiliating for the Kremlin. In the past, Moscow has reliably offered safe haven to fallen allies—most notably Ukraine’s Viktor Yanukovych and Syria’s Bashar al-Assad. Maduro, by contrast, appeared this week in a New York courtroom wearing prison clothes.
Is Moscow’s outrage undermined by its own record?
Russian officials have denounced the US operation as a “violation of sovereignty” and a return to “19th-century imperialism.” Such criticisms ring hollow. Moscow stands accused of precisely these crimes in Ukraine, where it has violated sovereignty on a massive scale.
Predictably, there has been some saber-rattling. Lawmakers have floated the idea of supplying Venezuela with advanced missile systems, while pro-war Telegram channels have claimed Washington’s actions give Moscow “free rein” elsewhere. Yet these threats remain rhetorical.
Is envy replacing confidence among Russia’s nationalists?
Perhaps the most telling reaction has come from Russia’s ultranationalists, many of whom appear less outraged than envious. Influential ideologue Aleksandr Dugin openly urged Moscow to “do like Trump—only better and faster.” State media figures, including Margarita Simonyan, admitted there was reason to be “jealous.”
Pro-Kremlin commentators also noted a painful contrast: unlike Russia, the United States is unlikely to face crippling sanctions or international isolation for its actions.
Has Trump mastered the “law of the jungle” better than Putin?
For years, Putin has argued that global politics is governed by strength, not law. The irony now is that Trump appears more adept at operating within that worldview. Putin helped create a system where success is the only measure of legitimacy—and Trump has just demonstrated how ruthlessly effective that system can be.
In exposing Russia’s inability to protect its allies, the Venezuela operation has not only reshaped Latin American politics. It has also laid bare a deeper truth: in the world Putin claims to dominate, he is no longer the most formidable player.
