The United States is quickly escalating its military presence off the coast of Iran, which could be an indication of a possible direct attack. Some of the military units that have been deployed in the past few days include the USS Abraham Lincoln, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier that is currently operating in the Arabian Sea, along with other military units of the United States. This has been a common trend in past military attacks by the United States.
A Familiar Pattern of Escalation
Washington followed up with a similar regional build-up during the 12-day Iran-Israel war in June last year, when the US allied with Israel and bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities. Later in the year, US forces were secretly mobilized in the Caribbean weeks before attacking Venezuelan ships that were allegedly involved in drug trafficking, with no evidence presented to the public. This campaign ended with a dramatic January 3 military operation, during which Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro was kidnapped from Caracas.
Such precedents have increased the focus on the recent build-up in the vicinity of Iran.
Protests, Crackdowns, and Trump’s Shifting Rhetoric
The current escalation follows mass protests that erupted across Iran in late December. Demonstrations initially focused on the collapse of the national currency but quickly evolved into broader calls for regime change. Iranian security forces responded with force, prompting international outrage.
According to the UN special rapporteur on Iran, at least 5,000 protesters were killed and thousands more detained. US President Donald Trump seized on the unrest, publicly condemning Iran’s clerical leadership and telling demonstrators that “help is on its way.” He warned Tehran that executions of detainees would trigger US military action.
Earlier this month, Trump temporarily dialled back his threats, saying Iranian authorities had assured him there would be no executions. After the protests were finally crushed last week, he claimed executions had been halted because of US pressure, a claim Iran has denied.
Military Assets Move Despite De-Escalation Claims
Despite Trump’s temporary softening of tone, the scale and timing of US military deployments suggest Washington is keeping military options firmly on the table. Analysts note that the unusual concentration of naval and air assets near Iran’s coastline points to contingency planning for potential strikes.
Speaking aboard Air Force One last Thursday, Trump confirmed the deployments were deliberate.
“We have a massive fleet heading in that direction, and maybe we won’t have to use it,”
he said, adding that any Iranian executions would make last June’s attack on nuclear sites “look like peanuts.”
USS Abraham Lincoln Leads Expanded Naval Presence
US Central Command confirmed on Monday that the USS Abraham Lincoln has been sent to the Middle East to “promote regional security and stability.” The carrier had been operating in the South China Sea after departing San Diego in November before being redirected toward the Arabian Sea.
While CENTCOM offered few details on the rationale for the move, the deployment marks one of the most significant US naval concentrations near Iran in months, at a time of sharply rising tensions.
Air Force Conducts Regional Readiness Drills
US Air Forces Central Command on Tuesday said that readiness exercises will be conducted over several days in its areas of responsibility, which include about 20 nations in the Middle East, Africa, and Asia. The exercises are intended to assess the ability to rapidly deploy forces, build partnerships with host nations, and prepare for “flexible responses,” according to the command.
The exercises are intended to
“ensure airpower is available when and where it’s needed,”
said AFCENT commander, Lieutenant General Derek France. The Pentagon has not revealed where or when the exercises are taking place.
US Military Footprint Across the Middle East
The US has a large military presence in the region, which has grown since 2024 as the US government aimed to deter Iran’s Houthi forces in Yemen, who have attacked Israeli-linked vessels in the Red Sea.
As of June 2025, the US had about 40,000 troops deployed in the Middle East, as estimated by the Council on Foreign Relations. The US has permanent bases in Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Syria, and the United Arab Emirates. The US also has other bases in Oman and Türkiye.
Iran attacked Qatar’s Al Udeid airbase on June 23, 2025, as a retaliatory attack against US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities the previous day. The attack resulted in no human casualties, and satellite images revealed that the US had evacuated its aircraft before the attack.
Capabilities of the USS Abraham Lincoln Strike Group
The USS Abraham Lincoln serves as a floating airbase and the flagship of Carrier Strike Group 3, which includes between 6,000 and 7,000 sailors and marines. Measuring 333 metres in length, the carrier is among the largest warships in the US Navy and is powered by nuclear reactors that allow it to operate for decades without refuelling.
Despite its size, the carrier is designed for sustained high-speed operations, capable of travelling at over 56 kilometres per hour, enabling rapid manoeuvring and evasion.
At least three Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers are operating alongside the carrier as escorts. These vessels are equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles for land strikes and advanced systems for ballistic missile defence. The destroyers assigned to the group include the USS Frank E Petersen Jr, USS Spruance, and USS Michael Murphy.
Carrier strike groups typically also include a guided-missile cruiser, an attack submarine, and a replenishment ship. The USS Mobile Bay, a missile cruiser commonly paired with the Abraham Lincoln, may be operating with the group, though this has not been confirmed.
Air Power Aboard the Carrier
The carrier’s air wing, Carrier Air Wing 9—known as the “Shoguns”—played a prominent role in US strikes against Yemen’s Houthis in 2024. The wing consists of eight or nine squadrons and roughly 65 aircraft, including F/A-18E Super Hornet strike fighters used for precision attacks, reconnaissance, and refuelling operations.
The June 2025 Strike on Iran’s Nuclear Sites
The current deployments revive memories of Operation Midnight Hammer, the US assault launched on June 22, 2025. During the operation, around 4,000 US personnel participated in simultaneous strikes on three Iranian nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
Fordow, a heavily fortified underground enrichment site, was hit with 12 Massive Ordnance Penetrator bunker-buster bombs dropped by seven B-2 stealth bombers. Each GBU-57 bomb weighs 13,000 kilograms and is capable of penetrating up to 60 metres underground before detonating.
Natanz was struck with two additional bunker-busters, while Isfahan was hit by more than 24 Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from a US submarine, believed to be the USS Georgia.
Trump later revealed that F-35 and F-22 fighter jets entered Iranian airspace during the operation to guard against retaliation. In total, 125 aircraft took part, all withdrawing before Iran could respond.
The strikes marked the first time the US directly attacked targets on Iranian soil. While Washington had previously killed Iranian general Qassem Soleimani in a 2020 drone strike, that operation took place near Baghdad airport in Iraq, not inside Iran itself.
Signals Pointing Toward Possible Escalation
While US officials insist the deployments are precautionary, the scale, composition, and timing of the military build-up are fuelling speculation that Washington is positioning itself for rapid action. With Trump’s warnings growing sharper and US forces moving closer to Iran’s coast, analysts say the risk of escalation is rising—even if no final decision to strike has yet been made.
