A sharp decrease in cross-border terrorist attacks and fatalities related to violence has been registered in Pakistan after the closure of its border with Afghanistan on October 11, 2025, based on new security statistics. It seems to be having an impact on militant mobility during a period in which Pakistan is faced with its deadliest violence in more than a decade.
Data collected by the Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS) indicates that terrorist attacks dropped almost 17 percent in December, compared to a 9 percent decrease in November. Deaths attributed to terrorist violence of both civilians and security personnel also decreased in the last quarter of 2025, as civilian deaths dropped almost 4 percent and the number of fatalities in security forces went down 19 percent in both November and December.
Pakistan's firm stance against cross-border terrorism is proving to be fruitful as Islamabad's decision to shut its border with neighbouring Afghanistan has resulted in notable drop in terrorist attacks: @CRSSpak's Security Report 2025@ImtiazGul60 https://t.co/VxoBaY51jX
— The Center for Research and Security Studies (@CRSSpak) January 2, 2026
Why did Pakistan close its border with Afghanistan?
The Pakistani government officially closed and blocked the main entry and exit points along its Afghanistan frontier on October 11 due to the constant infiltration of militants and the use of Afghan soil to mount attacks against Pakistan.
Islamabad has maintained that militants move along undocumentered routes, especially along the porous border of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan, as a result of which Terrain, which makes it difficult for them to be detected, said officials from Pakistan.
The measures taken along this border included tightening control of movements along this border, improved biometric screening, and restriction of freedom of undocumentered entry, which Islamabad maintained had become necessary following warnings that fell on deaf ears in Islamabad and Kabul.
Is militancy in Pakistan directly linked to Afghan-based groups?
As per security analysis conducted by the Pakistani government, together with data collected by CRSS, it can be seen that a large number of terrorist attacks in the country are traced back to militants operating from Afghanistan, especially Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a radical Islamic faction in the country
Official statistics mentioned in Pakistani reports suggest that hundreds of attacks since 2021 had been plotted or organized from the other side of the border. The recent briefings to parliament about intelligence with references to previous data suggested more than 60% of the main terrorist attacks in KP had either come from Afghanistan or had organized support in this country.
The TTP, which shares ideological roots with the Afghan Taliban, has openly acknowledged the presence of its leadership and fighters inside Afghanistan, particularly in eastern provinces bordering Pakistan.
How did militants exploit cross-border movement to carry out attacks?
According to security sources, militants normally enter Pakistan in small numbers and can easily be mingled with the flow of civilians or through remote mountain passes. They then attack security convoys, police stations, and checkpoints in Pakistan and return through the same mountain passes.
This trend escalated post-the Afghan Taliban’s takeover in August 2021 amid rising incidents within Pakistani borders. According to CRSS statistics, attacks have surged by almost 38 percent in 2021, then over 15 percent in 2022, 56 percent in 2023, almost 67 percent in 2024, and 34 percent in 2025.
Why was 2025 the most violent year in a decade?
Although it experienced a decline in the latter part of the year due to the imposition of border controls, 2025 turned out to be the most violent year in a decade for Pakistan, recording close to 34 percent more incidents of violence, as per CRSS.
The number of fatalities resulting from terrorism and counter-terrorism activities grew from 2,555 in 2024 to 3,417 in 2025. This constitutes a jump of 862 fatalities annually. This trend can be linked to the wave of global terrorism and the resurgence of activities by the TTP.
Which regions suffered the most violence?
The most intense escalation of hostilities occurred in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, where casualties increased from 1,620 in 2024 to 2,331 in 2025-an increase of 711 deaths, accounting for over 82 percent of the national rise and representing an almost 44 percent year-on-year hike.
Balochistan experienced a considerable surge as the number of killings went up from 787 to 956, an increase in 169 or almost 22 percent as compared with the previous year. Taken together, KP and Balochistan accounted for more than 96 percent of the total fatalities and almost 93 percent of the total violent incidents across the country during 2025.
Why are KP and Balochistan disproportionately affected?
As reported in the CRSS data, the breakdown of the total number of victims of violence-related deaths and incidents involving the KP and Balochistan regions reveals that the KP experienced 68 percent (2,331) of the total number of victims in the form of violence-related deaths and 63 percent (795) of the total number of victims as
Proximity to Afghanistan, challenging terrain, low border fencing, especially in some regions, and the historical presence of militant groups have made both the provinces high-risk zones for cross-boundary insurgency and terror attacks.
What is the dispute between Pakistan, the Afghan Taliban, and the TTP?
In this context, the Pakistan government has repeatedly accused the Afghan Taliban of not cooperating with the TTP, contrary to their pledge in the Doha Agreement deal. As such, according to the Pakistan government, the inability on the part of the Taliban to destroy TTP havens in Afghanistan has contributed to violence against the Pakistan security agencies.
While the Afghan Taliban have denied any responsibility, saying that the Pakistani problem with militancy is an “internal issue,” relations were further strained with the failed peace talks between the Pakistani government and the TTP in 2022 after the latter unilaterally decided to stop the ceasefire arrangement that had been in place and continued its attacks.
What about the rest of the country?
In the rest of the country, the number of violent incidents remained small. Punjab witnessed 25 incidents, leading to 40 killingss and 24 injuries, constituting just 1.15 percent of the total number of killed/injured persons. In Sindh, the number of incidents reached 51, resulting in 56 killingss and 40 injured, constituting 1.73 percent.
In Azad Jammu & Kashmir, as well as in Islamabad Capital Territory, the incidents were fewer in numbers, but the ratio of injuries was relatively higher, with 103 injuries in Azad J&K, as well as 38 in Islamabad, each sustained in just five incidents. Gilgit-Baltistan remained the least affected region, but the death toll rose fourfold, with four deaths, an insignificant but comparatively appreciable rise.
