Russia and Tajikistan are pledged to joint counterterrorism exercises, which have become even more important because of the elevation of terrorist activities in Afghanistan. This cooperation between Moscow and Dushanbe highlights their dedication to enhancing military and defence cooperation. Furthermore, the fact that Moscow has a military presence in Tajikistan and operates closely with Dushanbe to fight terrorism underscores the Kremlin’s plan to improve its presence and influence in Central Asia, taking advantage of the terrorist danger emanating from neighbouring Afghanistan.
On April 15th, 2024, Russia and Tajikistan started joint anti-terrorism exercises in the Khatlon region, as reported by the Russian Ministry of Defence. The exercises affect units from the 201st Russian Military Base (RVB) and aim to improve capabilities in countering terrorist threats and defending borders.
Since the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan in August 2021 and the following rise of the Taliban, Russia has strengthened its military and defence cooperation with Tajikistan.
The escalating terrorist movements in the Afghan territory motivate this partnership, notably by groups such as the Islamic State Wilayat Khurasan (IS-Khurasan). Tajikistan, sharing a boundary with Afghanistan, faces the direct impact of these threats.
Countering terrorism is also significant considering that recently IS-Khurasan released its first problem of the Voice of Khurasan in the Tajik language, addressing Dushanbe’s government and describing Tajik president Emomali Rahmon as an apostate. The publication unleashed online after the terrorist attack in Moscow, proved the terrorist groups’ strategy to recruit among the young generations in Central Asia, particularly in Tajikistan, a country which has experienced an increasingly strict regime.
Moreover, the recent terrorist attack at the Crocus City Hall in Moscow, instructed by Tajik citizens, underscores the immediate action for increased collaboration between Moscow and Dushanbe in fighting terrorism. In addition to other challenges, Tajikistan is currently wrestling with the rise of Tehrik-e-Taliban Tajikistan, a company that came into existence in July 2022. Operating in northern Afghanistan, this group strives to unite Tajik nationals under the Taliban banner and destroy the Tajik government in Dushanbe.
The joint anti-terrorism drills between Russia and Tajikistan show that the two nations are working together strategically to manage the security concerns they have in common. Russia views Central Asia, including Tajikistan, as within its globe of influence and seeks to bolster its presence in the territory amid the developing security terrain following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan.
Tajikistan, in turn, depends on Russian support to oppose the growing terrorist threats emanating from Afghanistan and to protect its borders. Moreover, the exercises conform to a demonstration of Russia’s responsibility to maintain stability in the region and stop the spread of extremism and terrorism beyond Afghanistan’s borders. By actively employing military cooperation with Tajikistan, Russia strives to consolidate its position as a key security supporter in Central Asia and enhance its influence in the broader Eurasian region.
Despite the joint exercises being a bold measure to address terrorism threats, there are still several threats and challenges that need to be evaluated. The ongoing instability in Afghanistan, exacerbated by the Taliban’s resurrection and the presence of various terrorist groups, poses a constant threat to regional security. The potential for spillover impacts, including cross-border attacks and the infiltration of extremist stuff into Tajikistan, remains a significant problem.
The presence of non-state actors and contests among regional powers in Central Asia’s complex geopolitical dynamics have the potential to delay efforts in effectively countering terrorism.
Moreover, the longstanding conflicts between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, particularly surrounding their challenged borders, contribute an extra level of complexity to the security challenges in the region. In conclusion, while the joint drills between Russia and Tajikistan reflect an enthusiastic approach to addressing shared protection challenges, sustained collaboration and coordination will be necessary to effectively mitigate the threats posed by terrorism and instability in the region.
