War in Ukraine: Security, trade and oil
While the US was seeking to generate international support for Ukraine and contain a jump in oil prices, the White House tried unsuccessfully to organize calls between US President Biden and the de facto presidents of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The monarchies of the Persian Gulf have so far refused to raise […]
Why did Putin invade Ukraine?
There are many questions that may be asked about Putin’s invasion of its sovereign neighbour, Ukraine, not least why? In the following list, TACTICS provides the possible rationales behind the invasion, looking at Putin’s rambling addresses, those to his security council, and his stage-managed addresses designed for the Russian media, particularly state Television. Protection, […]
Has Putin overplayed his hand in Ukraine?
Vladimir Putin has long harboured grievances against the West that have fuelled his “revanchist” foreign policy. This is no secret. In an essay that Putin wrote in July 2021, he declared that the current territory of Ukraine was once Russian land and that legitimate sovereignty for Ukraine could only be established in partnership with Russia. […]
Security concerns shape China’s cautious approach to the Taliban
In contrast to most western states, China is typically prepared to openly work with any government regardless of how it obtained power. The difference between how Beijing has dealt with the Taliban since it took over Afghanistan in August 2021 compared to how Washington, London and Brussels have done so underscores this point. Whereas the […]
Natural disasters and small island developing states: The case of the Pacific Ocean
Climate change and natural disasters pose a significant threat to small island states. Natural disasters have caused US$3 billion in damage to Pacific Island countries alone over the last half-century. Small island states account for more than 60% of the countries with the highest disaster-related losses. Sea-level rise pose a significant threat due to the […]
Natural disasters and small island developing states: Future goals
Small Island Developing States (SIDS) share similar sustainable development challenges, such as limited land mass and arable land, fragile natural environments, reliance on food imports, geographic isolation and distance from global markets. SIDS, with a population of 65 million people, account for only 1% of CO2 emissions, but they are the most vulnerable to the […]
Why the F-35 deal between the US and UAE was suspended
In December 2021, the UAE informed the US that it would suspend talks to acquire F-35 fighter jets as part of a $23 billion deal with its Gulf ally that also included drones and other advanced munitions. ‘Technical requirements, sovereign operational restrictions and the cost/benefit analysis led to the reassessment,’ an Emirati official told Reuters. […]
What role could Britain play in deterring a Russian invasion of Ukraine?
At the time of writing, Conservative MPs are tying themselves in knots as to when, or if, to ditch Boris Johnson. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin, the autocratic President of Russia, rattles his proverbial sabre at his next-door neighbour. While the exact number is uncertain, Ukraine alleges Russia has amassed 127.000 troops on its border. This includes […]
2022: Threats on the horizon
In 1992, as the West basked in the collapse of the Communist Bloc, the political scientist, Francis Fukuyama, published a book which would forever haunt him. Titled The End of History and The Last Man, he argued that the victory of liberal capitalism was an inevitable culmination of struggles between ideologies. But then came 9/11, […]
The war in Yemen rumbles on
Fighting between the Saudi-led coalition and Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen continues to harm civilians, drive displacement in the region and restrict humanitarian access. The conflict has its roots in the failure of a political process supposed to bring stability to Yemen following an uprising in 2011 that forced its long-time authoritarian president, Ali Abdullah […]