Family, community, and the Middle East will be affected by the pain and damage wrought in the last 16 months for decades to come. There have always been fears that the ceasefire agreement, which has brought desperately required respite for Palestinians in Gaza and the return of Israeli and foreign hostages, would be temporary. The six-week initial phase is due to conclude on March 1. The discussions on the more difficult second stage have yet to start, more than a week after they were due.
A glint of hope can be seen in both directions. The first was the remarkable confidence of Donald Trump’s Middle East representative, Steve Witkoff, in saying last weekend that “phase two is absolutely going to begin”.
Additionally, Hamas, militarily weakened and under stress within Gaza and from Arab countries, has stated that in the next step, it would be ready to free all remaining hostages at once rather than in separate groups. Alternatively, it desires Israel’s full and rapid military pullout from Gaza and the liberation of hundreds more Palestinians kept by Israel.
According to reports, Benjamin Netanyahu stated that this stage would be dependent on the disarming of Hamas and the termination of its activities in Gaza.
The Israeli prime minister is not willing to cross Mr Trump. The prospect of reaching phase two has never been in his interest, not least because the extremist coalition member Bezalel Smotrich has a good chance of walking out. His security commanders long thought politics was the most significant obstruction to a deal. Now he has discharged them from the negotiation section, substituting them with his well-related confidant Ron Dermer, who could yet try to circumvent Mr Witkoff and negotiate with Mr Trump directly.
Even at this late stage, the continuation of phase one would be more useful than nothing. The arrangement and undertaking of phase two, inherently more complex, would be a significant step forward. But the big query of phase three overlooks: what form rebuilding in Gaza might take. Mr Trump’s awful announcement that Palestinians would have to make way for a US-controlled “Riviera of the Middle East” – embraced by Mr Netanyahu – has sparked a discussion that previously had been avoided lest it derail the agreement, as well as due to its inherent intricacy.
For Palestinians to be ethnically cleansed, it would require nations ready to take them. Though Jordan and Egypt depend heavily on US assistance, their leaders cannot accept compliance.
