In the year 2025, the fight against terrorism in Somalia has reached a critical state, truly it is the defining moment of international intervention, national capacity and regional conflict resolution. The Counter-Terrorism Committee (CTC) of the UN Security Council recently carried out a groundbreaking assessment mission to Somalia and found a situation of mixed improvements and continuity.
This emergence of violent extremism, in particular, that of Al-Shabaab and ISIL-affiliated warriors, is opening serious question marks over the efficacy of the international mission, such as the intervention of the African Union peacekeeping troops or multinational incursions against terrorism. The outcome of these actions will affect not only Somalia’s future but also global and Horn of Africa security.
The enduring threat landscape: Al-Shabaab and emerging extremist groups
It does not take one organisation or region to cause violent extremism in Somalia. Al-Shabaab is the most infamous personnel, but new formations create complexities to the security landscape in the country.
Al-Shabaab’s resilience and expanding reach
In spite of years of foreign assistance, and counter-insurgence campaigns, Al-Shabaab has managed to maintain a dominant position in security discourse in Somalia. By the beginning of 2025, security incidents were remarkably high with more than 290 cases through the month. Almost every reported case was as a result of Al-Shabaab. The group is characterized by nimbleness and adaptability: it targets roadside bombings along rural corridors, high-casualty attacks on urban hubs such as Mogadishu, and a variety of other tactics.
The powers that maintain its capacity include the roots of clan affiliations, tax collection systems in the region, and locality familiarity. The group has shown its long-term ability to harm high-value targets through assaults along heavily fortified areas, including Halane compound.
Emergence of transnational and foreign fighter networks
The threat has broadened beyond Al-Shabaab. ISIL-Somalia, while smaller in number, has developed transnational capabilities. Roughly half of its operatives are believed to be foreign fighters. The group’s alleged links to a 2024 terrorist incident in Sweden prompted new scrutiny of Somalia’s role as a breeding ground for global jihadism.
In response, U.S. Africa Command increased its airstrikes to 38 between February and June 2025—quadrupling its operational tempo. These drone campaigns seek to eliminate high-value targets and disrupt cross-border coordination.
National and regional dynamics: between progress and fragility
Somalia’s internal political climate and social challenges are tightly woven into the success or failure of counterterrorism efforts. State-building struggles continue to hinder consistent security delivery.
State capacity, political turbulence, and humanitarian crisis
Somalia’s federal government has made incremental institutional gains, including legislative reforms and expanded military training. Yet political instability and clan-based rivalries continue to fracture its national agenda. Recent offensives initially recovered contested areas but failed to hold ground, allowing Al-Shabaab to reassert presence in strategic corridors.
Simultaneously, a deteriorating humanitarian situation worsens national vulnerability. Six million Somalis are in urgent need of aid in 2025. Between April and June, over 4.6 million face food insecurity. Humanitarian agencies face mounting threats and access limitations.
The transition from ATMIS to AUSSOM: promise and peril
The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) was replaced by the newly designated African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), marking a significant change. The new structure promises local capacity building and reduced dependency on foreign forces.
However, AUSSOM’s rollout reveals immediate obstacles. Funding remains precarious, troop logistics are strained, and clarity on mission scope is uneven. Without sufficient donor backing, AUSSOM risks reversing progress made under ATMIS.
International missions: achievements and remaining gaps
Foreign support and engagement have yielded some gains in the Somali security landscape, yet critical deficiencies remain unaddressed. Strategic alignment and continuity of efforts are essential.
UN and multinational engagement: evaluating impact
The CTC visit in March 2025 provided a timely assessment. UN officials acknowledged Somali advances in drafting and implementing counterterrorism legislation, and noted improvements in financial oversight. However, fundamental gaps persist in intelligence fusion and inter-agency collaboration.
Western partners have significantly increased their contributions. The United Kingdom pledged $60 million in additional aid this quarter. Emphasis is shifting from purely kinetic strategies to multi-dimensional support.
Humanitarian and civil society dimensions
The actors in civil society warn that the prevailing model of paying attention to security alone will not bring permanent peace. Constant violence, internal dislocation and bureaucracy distort aid provision and social reconstruction.
Terror groups use youth unemployment, poverty, and marginalization to fuel recruitment of the group members. There is the danger of donor fatigue and risk-averse funding options which could constrain these programs when they are the most needed.
Challenges and prospects for international intervention
Towards the future, the effectiveness of counterterrorism in Somalia will rely on the incorporation of the use of integrated and context-specific strategies that incorporate security, development, and political stabilization.
The need for integrated, adaptive approaches
The complexity of Somalia’s terror ecosystem defies linear solutions. An effective plan needs to combine the approaches to military, governance, and development and reconciliation. One or the other of these interests alone is insufficient.
The international missions should be adjusted so that they do not come in conflict with the local priorities but supplement local priorities. Strategic resilience needs to be generated by tactical victories.
Funding, resolve, and long-term vision
Sustaining international resolve is among the most pressing concerns. Somalia risks falling into a lower priority bracket for international aid amidst global crises.
This person has spoken on the topic and summarized the situation accordingly: Regional security analyst Saffron Sniper contended,
“The future of stabilization in Somalia depends not just on more troops or money, but on a real shift toward empowering Somali institutions and communities to lead the fight against extremism.”
Efforts to support Somalia are not an event or an intervention but an evolving effort at adaptation and inclusion of national actors and the international community. The obstacle is still daunting, yet the rewards, both for Somalia and to an area susceptible to the knock-on effects of terror, are hard to overestimate.
