Growing tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia, exacerbated by arms shipments, risk destabilising the flimsy Horn of Africa and creating options for the Islamist insurgents of Al-Shabaab. The region has been on vigilance since January when Ethiopia made the shocking statement that it would lease a stretch of coastline from Somaliland, a breakaway region of Somalia, to build a naval command and commercial port.

Landlocked Ethiopia has long pursued its own sea access, but the move angered Somalia which refuses to recognise Somaliland’s declaration of independence that it first declared in 1991. Somalia has responded by growing closer to Ethiopia’s biggest regional competitor, Egypt. Egypt has its bugbears with Ethiopia, especially the vast Grand Renaissance Dam it has been constructing on the Nile which Cairo witnesses as threatening its water supply.

Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud declared a “historic” military deal with Egypt. Somalia has since acquired two arms shipments. Analysts say that increases concerns. Somalia, a country already rampant in arms, is currently witnessing a spike in (weapons) imports amid the ongoing uncertainties. Given pervasive mistrust and feeble controls, this is a worrying development.

Somalia has further threatened to boot out Ethiopian armies deployed for an African Union mission against Al-Shabaab since 2007. The assignment is due for a makeover at the end of the year and Egypt has proposed to take the place of the Ethiopian troops for the first time. Somalia may also force Ethiopia to release the estimated 10,000 troops it has stationed along its shared fence to prevent incursions by the Islamists.

Such threats by Somalia were a wild card, developed to pressure Ethiopia away from evolving the first country to recognise Somaliland. But the potential failure of experienced Ethiopian troops has already grown fears in southwest Somalia, the area worst impacted by the Al-Shabaab insurgency. If Ethiopia and Somalia are not collaborating, if there is a fundamental breakdown in their security association, Al-Shabaab is the victor… they can take benefit of the gaps, said experts.

Endeavours by outside powers to turn down the temperature have made little improvement.

Turkey has hosted two rounds of discussions between Ethiopia and Somalia, in July and August.  Analysts express full-blown armed conflict remains doubtful, but the tripwires are increasing. Somalia blamed Ethiopia for supplying weapons to its northeastern Puntland territory, another breakaway region that unilaterally declared independence in 1998.