From the aftermath of Cyclone Gezani in Madagascar, and the growing cases of water-borne diseases in flood-affected Mozambique, to the devastating drought and cattle deaths along the Kenya-Somalia border, 2026 has started in Africa with an escalation in water-driven climate-related crises. These are happening at the same time that the African Union (AU) has decided to make water the focal point of its summit, and while it may seem technocratic, it has major and far-reaching security and political implications.
Experts argue that water has moved far beyond being a development issue. It is increasingly a catalyst for conflict, migration, political unrest, and interstate rivalry across the continent.
Is Water Still a Development Issue—or a Security Threat?
While the AU frames water as a pillar of life and sustainability, analysts warn that it has become one of the most strategic and contested resources of the 21st century.
“Water is life,” said Sanusha Naidu of the Institute for Global Dialogue,
“but water is also becoming a commodified and securitised resource. It is a humanitarian crisis, a climate crisis, and increasingly a peace and security issue.”
Africa, in particular, is warming at a rate higher than the global average, with temperature changes outpacing the global norm in several areas, as reported by the World Meteorological Organization. Climate variability is stressing water systems, especially those with poor governance, old infrastructure, and unequal access.
How Is Climate Change Turning Water into a Conflict Multiplier?
Climate change is altering the hydrological landscape of Africa, with alternating cycles of drought and flooding. Dhesigen Naidoo, writing for the Institute for Security Studies, states that climate change is currently being felt as a water issue.
Floods, droughts, cyclones, and heatwaves are becoming more frequent and severe, impacting food security, health, and livelihoods. Over 60 percent of Africans rely on rain-fed agriculture, making them highly susceptible to water fluctuations.
Too much water and too little water, Naidoo states, have the same destabilizing impact: they destroy access to critical resources. Water scarcity has been linked with food insecurity, displacement, and the recruitment of armed group members.
Is Resource Scarcity Fueling Extremism and Local Wars?
There are increasingly identifiable links between environmental degradation and insecurity. In the Sahel and Horn of Africa, desertification, the reduction of arable land, and water scarcity are coinciding with insurgencies by extremist groups like Boko Haram and al-Shabab.
Northern Nigeria offers one paradigm of how resource scarcity can contribute to insecurity, with extremist groups recruiting among poor and disenfranchised communities and farmer-herder conflicts escalating over access to land and water. In Madagascar and South Africa, demonstrations over water and electricity scarcity have been reported, underlining the capacity of water insecurity to destabilise even relatively advanced countries.
Are Africa’s Borders a Blueprint for Future Water Conflicts?
Colonial boundaries have divided Africa’s major river basins and water catchments, resulting in what is arguably some of the most complex transboundary water governance in the world. In fact, about 90 percent of Africa’s surface water is found in transboundary basins, and cooperation is needed across countries with vastly different levels of power and capacity.
Some of the major transboundary river basins in Africa include the Niger, Senegal, Limpopo, Orange, and Nile river basins, each of which involves a number of countries with different interests. While many of these agreements have helped avert conflict, experts say tensions are building as climate change takes its toll.
Could the Nile Become Africa’s First Major Water Flashpoint?
The Nile River basin is the most visible case of upstream–downstream conflict. The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) in Ethiopia signifies a paradigm shift in the geopolitical balance of the Nile River basin, ending Egypt’s centuries-long dominance in the Nile River basin.
Egypt perceives the GERD as a potential threat to its water security, considering that the Nile River supplies water to over 95 percent of its population. Analysts assert that the GERD conflict is not only a technical but also a political conflict, which signifies the rising geopolitical influence of Ethiopia and the falling influence of Egypt in the Nile River basin.
Egypt has responded by strengthening alliances with Sudan, Eritrea, and Somalia, illustrating how water disputes are reshaping security alignments across the Horn of Africa.
Are “Water Wars” Still a Myth—or an Emerging Reality?
Experts note that while interstate water wars are unlikely to occur directly, water is increasingly becoming a major contributor to existing conflicts. Naidoo indicates that the chances of conflicts arising from upstream-downstream relations are high, especially in Africa where political relations are already tense.
For example, Nigeria is an downstream state to the Niger River and currently has tense relations with its upstream states of Mali and Niger.
Is Water Now Being Weaponised in Modern Conflicts?
Besides being a source of conflict, water is increasingly being used as a weapon of war. In Sudan and Gaza, water infrastructure sabotage, blockade, and attacks have denied people their basic needs.
International humanitarian law has always regarded water infrastructure as civilian infrastructure, but experts argue that this standard is being undermined. The weaponization of water is becoming a strategy in modern warfare, with grave humanitarian consequences.
Are Technology and Corporations Worsening Water Scarcity?
Industrialisation and technology expansion are also introducing new pressures. Data centres, telecommunication infrastructure, mining activities, and agricultural businesses require vast amounts of water, often at the expense of the host communities.
In Africa, the rate of urbanisation is rising. The megacities of Lagos, Nairobi, and Johannesburg are having difficulties providing reliable water services to their populations. Experts are warning that the chances of civil uprisings are high if cities are unable to provide water services for as little as three days.
Who Is Responsible for Africa’s Water Crisis?
Observers argue that governments have long been aware of the looming crisis but failed to act at scale. The AU’s decision to prioritise water in 2026 is seen as overdue, symbolic, and potentially insufficient without binding commitments.
Responsibility also lies with corporations that pollute and extract water, local authorities that fail to manage infrastructure, and consumers who lack incentives to conserve.
The AU’s limited enforcement powers mean any summit declarations are unlikely to produce binding continental agreements, raising concerns that the agenda will remain rhetorical.
Can African Innovation Prevent a Water Catastrophe?
Despite the grim outlook, experts highlight promising grassroots solutions. Non-sewered sanitation systems, decentralised water purification technologies, and innovative infrastructure projects like Kibera’s overhead aqueduct in Nairobi offer scalable models for water resilience.
National governments, rather than regional bodies alone, may hold the key to scaling such innovations and preventing water scarcity from becoming a driver of instability.
A Looming Geopolitical Test for Africa
Water is no longer just a humanitarian or environmental issue—it is becoming a strategic resource shaping Africa’s security, politics, and development trajectory.
The question facing African leaders is whether they can transform the AU’s 2026 water agenda into real governance reform, infrastructure investment, and transboundary cooperation—or whether Africa will drift toward a future where water scarcity fuels unrest, migration, and conflict.
The era of “water wars” may not yet be here, but the warning signs are unmistakable.
