In 2025, President Vladimir Putin issued a pointed warning about growing instability in Afghanistan and the impact of the instability on the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) states. The CSTO is a military alliance of six post-Soviet states led by Russia, and is in a precarious security environment complicated further by an unstable Afghanistan.
This analysis aims to explore the various complications arising from instability in Afghanistan, the CSTO’s strategic responses, and the geopolitical context that has complicated Central Asia’s fragile border.
The CSTO and the Strategic Context
What is the CSTO?
There are six members in the CSTO: Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Armenia. All six countries (so to speak) have historical, cultural, and security connections to each other formed through their Soviet past. Nonetheless, Tajikistan is more susceptible than anyone else to instability along the border with Afghanistan, and it is probably the weakest state, at least partly, for this reason.
The Tajikistan-Afghanistan border is about 1,344 kilometers long. It is a long and porous border, which means, at every kilometer of the border, it can create potential conflict and instability. When relevant to the developments in Afghanistan that could impact the CSTO country members, the Tajikistan-Afghanistan border is the most proximate in its advancements of CSTO uncertainty and vulnerability of instability in Afghanistan since we began with deployments for Russia’s military presence.
Military Presence and Role of Russia
Tajikistan has a significant Russian military presence coming from the 201st Military Base. The 201st Military Base is a tactical key to monitor and respond to the security threats emanating from Afghanistan.
While it is important to prevent threats from Afghanistan, Russia’s bi-annual joint military exercises between Russian and Tajik military units together exemplifies Moscow’s commitment to regional security and cooperation.
In most instances, the CSTO’s bundled checks necessitate that Russia take the lead in coordinating security on the regional/collective, as outlined by collective defence responsibilities.
Afghanistan’s Instability: A Growing Threat
Terrorist Groups Operating in Afghanistan
Afghanistan continues to be a center of extremist groups posing threats to regional and global security. Russian and CSTO officials have identified an excess of twenty radical groups being able to operate there, including:
- Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan(ISKP)
- Jundallah
- Eastern Turkistan Islamic Movement (ETIM)
- Al Qaeda
- Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov estimates that more than 15,000 militants exist in Afghanistan, many of whom have developed combat experience from fighting in Syria and Iraq. They use the absence of law in Afghanistan to regroup, train, and launch cross-border attacks.
The Taliban’s Uncertain Place
In August 2021, the Taliban came back to power and rapidly changed the security landscape. Because of the shy exit by a US-led coalition, some CSTO members, like Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, took the extraordinary step of removing the Taliban from their lists of terrorist organizations as a first step in re-engagement, while others, like Tajikistan, rightly or wrongly continue to show caution. The Taliban has claimed it would not shelter such groups, such as ISIS-K and Al Qaeda, but UN Security Council documentation and monitoring efforts show that these groups exist and operate within a Taliban space that is either tolerated or coordinated.
Cross-Border Violence and Flow-on Effects
Within the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border context, we have seen a noticeable uptick in security incidents including a prominent attack on November 18, 2024 which resulted in the death of a Chinese national. This incident reflects the porous border and difficulty in preventing militants from crossing into Tajikistan.
Drug trafficking and arms smuggling further complicate the security environment.
Putin’s Warning and CSTO’s Response
Putin’s Statement on Regional Security
On June 15th, 2025, President Putin declared that Afghanistan’s instability presented a “serious threat to security” to CSTO member states and is a risk to their collective safety and a risk to stability in the region. He called attention to the historical sites of terrorist groups’ use of Afghan territory to move into neighboring countries.
“Afghanistan remains a source of terrorism; extremism; and narcotics-related crimes.” Putin reported. He called for improved border security and intelligence sharing across CSTO national borders as well as joint military exercises.
Russia’s Assessment by Minister of Defence Belousov
Andrei Belousov, Russia’s Minister of Defence, reiterated President Putin’s concerns on June 19th during a CSTO defence ministers meeting in Bishkek:
“We are on the frontline. The situation on the southern borders of CSTO member states is incredibly complicated… Afghanistan is the main source of instability in Central Asia.”
He conveyed the threat of over 15,000 militants and new foreign fighters coming from the Middle East.
Belousov articulated his concerns regarding the strategic interests of Western states, suggesting Western states were attempting to destabilize Moscow’s allies and weaken Russian strategic interests in Central Asia.
CSTO’s Collective Measures
The CSTO has made strengthening the Afghanistan-Tajikistan border a priority strategic goal. Joint military exercises, improved cooperation in the area of intelligence, and proposed supplies of weapons and equipment to Tajikistan’s border forces — with a phased implementation extending to the year 2030 — are parts of the process. The alliance also urged the Taliban to combat terrorism and drug trafficking, and to form an inclusive government that respects human rights.
Regional Dynamics and Challenges
Tajikistan’s Vulnerability
Tajikistan has the longest and most difficult border with Afghanistan, making it the most vulnerable member of the CSTO. Tajik officials have often pushed for the construction of a “security belt” to contain militant spillover from Afghanistan. The presence of the Russian 201st Military Base in Tajikistan is an indication of how important Moscow considers this frontline to be.
Differing Approaches to the Taliban
Diverging Approaches to the Taliban
As Russia has pragmatically removed the Taliban from its terrorist list and has enlarged its diplomatic relationship with it, some of its CSTO allies have remained ambivalent. The fact that Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan removed the Taliban from their terrorist lists shows a willingness to diplomatically engage with the Taliban and the emerging regime. Unlike Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan’s hesitance shows the bilateral differences that exist in the CSTO.
The Greater Geopolitical Contest
Russia views the growing level of western engagement in Central Asia with concern perceiving it as a strategic threat. The Kremlin narrative tends to view western behavior as not only an attack against Russia but also an attempt to destabilize Central Asia.
The complexities of the CSTO’s attempts to respond to Afghanistan’s security threats is further complicated by this geopolitical competition.
The Human and Economic Costs
Drug Trafficking and Crime
Afghanistan’s drug trade, in particular, of concern to the CSTO states. The narcotics trade finances the activities of militant groups, as well as aiding in the corruption and criminal activity in Central Asia. CSTO officials emphasize the need for consolidated efforts to counter both the drug trade and militant activities while carrying out structured counter terrorist operations.
Economic Sanctions and Afghan Reserves
International sanctions have made $9.4 billion in Afghan reserves inaccessible since 2021, resulting in an economic crisis for Afghanistan that also limits its ability to provide security. The economic collapse of Afghanistan creates an unstable atmosphere that attracts extremism and creates the conditions for recruiting.
Recent Developments Remind Us of the Danger
In November 2024, a Chinese national was killed by militants in a cross border attack in Tajikistan, clearly showing that the threat of militancy spilling over Afghanistan’s border exists now, and that some are preparing to take advantage of the instability that exists and will occur. It is clear that this situation will only deteriorate and worsen the security climate, as well as combine incremental mistrust amongst regional powers at a time when CSTO efforts towards security coordination become urgent and necessary.
Training a Tenuous Path
The situation in Afghanistan is unstable, and presents a more complicated challenge for the CSTO and its members than is the case in Eurasia generally. Terrorism, the region’s drug trade, and instability in Kabul could all wreak havoc on Kazakhstan and Central Asia, which are of strategic importance to Russia. President Putin’s statements have made it clear that something has to be done, and that improving border security, sharing intelligence, and increasing military cooperation with Central Asian states are indelibly important challenges that must be overcome.
But the CSTO is divided over how to engage the Taliban and challenges from other great powers, as well as a mix of regional and global actors.
The security situation is complex, with Tajikistan’s precarious borders, a number of radical groups still present, and very real economic implications stemming from sanctions being structurally unstable.
As the CSTO responds by strengthening its posture and posture toward collaboration, the question remains as to whether or not the CSTO will be able to wrestle with the issues coming from Afghanistan or whether they will lead to continuous instability across the southern border of the CSTO.
