Category: Analysis

ISIS-K and a resurgent terror threat in Afghanistan

The Islamic State – also known as ISIS, ISIL, or Daesh – emerged from the remnants of al Qaeda in Iraq (AQI), a local offshoot of al Qaeda founded by Abu Musab al Zarqawi in 2004. By 2013, remnants of the Qaeda affiliate had rebranded themselves the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria, or ISIS, […]

Middle East Hydropolitics: Conflict and Scarcity

In 1920, a committee was established by France and Britain (then the region’s mandated powers) to coordinate efforts toward the utilization of the waters of the Euphrates and Tigris. Attempts since to create a sustainable governance framework and management system for both, have faltered. The Middle East and North Africa is the most water-scarce region […]

Tunisia’s Political Crisis: A Slide to Authoritarianism?

In July 2021, following massive street protests, Tunisia’s President Kais Saied sacked the prime minister, suspended parliament temporarily, and stated his intent to move forward with widespread prosecutions as part of long-promised anti-corruption efforts. The military was then deployed, preventing legislators from entering the parliament building; while police stormed the headquarters of news broadcaster Al […]

Jihadi Lone Wolf Attacks Still Threaten Europe

According to the 2021 European Union Terrorism Situation and Trend Report, the self-proclaimed Islamic State (IS) and al-Qaeda networks have continued to inspire “lone wolf” attacks in Western countries, while most jihadist terrorist attackers used unsophisticated attack methods. Most of the attacks that took place in Europe during 2020 were carried out by individuals that […]

Britain East of Suez; A return to empire, or is the world getting smaller?

In reflection of the US’s Pivot east, the UK has proposed a ‘tilt’ in this direction. This is in part a consequence of China emerging as a strategic rival, partly a consequence of the UK’s global concerns. Whilst it is not unreasonable that nations seek to ensure their interests, it is often the case that […]

Covid-19 and Far Right Terror: The Quiet Before the Storm?

At first sight, it appears lockdown has been good for society’s battle against terrorism. According to data, in 2018 there were 1,056 arrests across the combined EU area and the UK for terror-related activity. In 2019 there were 1,004. But in 2020 that figure dropped to just 449. Deaths caused by terror attacks declined from […]

Afghanistan: What chances for a Taliban return to power?

In early July a Taliban spokesperson made a startling claim: the insurgent movement controlled 85% percent of the country. While the Afghan Government disputed the figure, no one treated it with incredulity. Whether accurate or not, the suggestion wasn’t ludicrous. Rather, it’s quite possible to imagine such an outcome, or worse, the complete takeover of the […]

EU intervention in Libya; a risky confrontation or a test of resolve?

The possibility of an EU headed military intervention in North Africa has long been a point of contention; this discussion is again evolving following the reported leak of documents detailing plans for a potential EU action in Libya. The alleged benefits of such an intervention relate not only to the interdiction of smuggling across the […]