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Did the migration crisis in Europe intensify security risks? Evidence and analysis

The conflict and instability in the regions such as Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, and some parts of Sub-Saharan Africa were the main causes of the migration crisis that occurred in Europe during the period between 2015 and 2016.

The issue was that within a limited period of time more than one million individuals came to the European Union either by sea or land, which has led to not only humanitarian mobilization but also institutional tension. South states such as Greece and Italy were initially pressured because of their geographical location and the Balkan route took refugees and immigrants further north to Central and Western Europe.

The move by Germany under the leadership of Angela Merkel, to adopt an open-door policy on asylum seekers, was a turning point. This strategy was, however, soon challenged by the long-term sustainability of this strategy as political opposition rose, administrative regimes were crippled and societal pressures were strained. As of early 2016, a number of EU countries had restored internal border control, tightened asylum procedures and strengthened outer frontier management. In March 2016, the EU-Turkey deal was a groundbreaking reaction, which both deterred migration and collaborated in diplomacy and humanitarian aid, in exchange of Reps hosting refugees.

The securitization of migration in Europe

With the peak of migrant influx, political discourses in the European continent began representing migration in terms of security. This securitization enabled governments to legitimize interventions, like emergency border shutdowns, biometric surveillance launches, expedited removals, and more vigorous enforcement at the external boundaries. Migration, which used to be mainly a humanitarian and social policy issue was soon volleyballed into the security and counterterrorism policies.

As of 2024, the EU expenditure on border and internal security systems had increased to more than 65 billion due to technological and institutional growth in migration management involving security matters. Member states raised border control to a level where automated checkpoints and aerial surveillance by drones were no longer seen as an area that needed military-level capabilities.

Impact of securitization on policy and rights

This move also changed the internal and external policy stance of the EU. The growth of Frontex, the present European Border and Coast Guard Agency, involved new tasks like the coordination of returns and cooperation with third countries. The use of private security companies to run detention centers, deportations, and offshore processing centers was more prevalent, and brought up issues of accountability and transparency.

According to human rights organizations, such developments threatened to cloud the EU obligations towards protecting refugees under international law. The process of seeking asylum was also made harder especially to those who entered the country through irregular means, although the majority were escaping situations that would be classified in accordance with the legal definition of persecution or conflict.

Assessing the security threats linked to migration

After the terror attacks in Paris (2015) and Brussels (2016), the general fear of possible terrorist attacks through migration routes increased. Inquiries found isolated instances whereby those associated with extremist groups had penetrated Europe with falsified or incomplete documentation as asylum seekers. These events gained extreme popularity in the political discourse, and they strengthen the notion that migration is the threat to national security.

Nevertheless, a study by EUROPOL and national security services found that a greater percentage of migrants and asylum seekers were not security threats, but victims of war and chaos. The 2023 report released by the agency reiterated that homegrown extremism and online radicalization were the largest contributors to the terror-related activity in Europe, rather than the inflows of refugees.

Societal tension and integration challenges

Even massive migrations by definition did have social pressure in certain host societies. Housing deficiency in urban areas, social services stretched to their limits and problems of cultural assimilation created further complications. These dynamics occasionally give rise to populist discourses which equated migration and crime even though data did not support these.

A longitudinal study was carried out in Germany and Sweden (2017-2024), which did not show any statistically significant relationship between higher rates of violent crimes and increased immigration. Rather, the results were greatly differentiated according to the local integration policy, the access to education and work, as well as the support systems on a community level.

Policy responses and institutional developments

Since 2016, the EU strengthened its migration governance structure. The budget of Frontex increased according to the Multiannual Financial Framework 2021-2027 and it was allocated over 11.5 billion. Member states were delegating more and more migration control activities to outsiders, and cooperation arrangements were made with Turkey, Libya, Tunisia and Morocco.

Though these measures decreased unorthodox entry, they cast doubts on the ethical standards of the outsourcing of processing asylum and the circumstance under which the migrants were detained in third nations. In 2024, UNHCR and IOM reports recorded cases of abuse and exploitation in detention centers in North Africa, where the facilities were not run with much control.

New legislative tools and mixed reactions

In 2024, the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum was adopted and is starting to be implemented in 2025, which aims at simplifying asylum procedures, accelerating returns, and standardizing border practices among member countries. Civil society actors have expressed some of the same concerns as EU institutions are saying it is a step towards operational efficiency and burden-sharing; however, they have also expressed their concerns that the Pact will further entrench a securitised logic at the cost of individual protection.

The tension between efficiency in policies and rights based governance has manifested through legal issues and civil protests in some of the member states. The challenge of hitting the right balance between speed, accountability, and fairness is also a fundamental challenge to the asylum management reform.

The contemporary migration-security nexus in 2025

The utilization of migration as a geopolitical instrument is one of the issues that are becoming increasingly problematic in 2025. There have been a number of cases reported when non-EU countries have tried to drive migrant populations in the direction of European frontiers in the middle of the diplomatic conflict, which is basically utilizing the migration flows as a pressure tool. These situations are seen in the Belarus-Poland border in 2021 and elsewhere since the hybrid threats were discussed by the EU and demanded more coherent strategic response schemes.

The growing use of intelligent border technologies, predictive analytics, and AI-based threat detection is developing a more surveillance-intensive paradigm of border control. Nevertheless, concerns have remained on the implication to civil liberties and control, especially with data privacy laws being hard-pressed to keep up pace with technology.

Institutional convergence of migration and security policy

Migration and security policy are not distinct anymore. Migration management is mentioned as a strategic priority in national security policies in a number of EU member states. Migration-security nexus has come to be entrenched in the decision-making process, allocation of resources, and diplomatic relations.

Meanwhile, it is becoming increasingly acknowledged that security should be considered a whole. According to policymakers, successful integration, protection of human rights, and tackling the root causes of displacement with the help of foreign aid and prevention of conflicts are long-term safety and stability.

Broader implications for European integration and cohesion

The post-migration crisis aftershocks are still felt in the European political arena. The disputes around the number of refugees to take in, funding of various border operations, and the generally accepted standards of asylum have pushed the boundaries of European unity. These splits have redefined the electoral results and policy priorities, usually to the benefit of the right-wing parties, who are preoccupied with the security and national identity issues.

Yet signs of renewed commitment to collective action have also emerged. The EU’s 2025 development strategy includes enhanced migration partnerships, increased humanitarian funding, and renewed emphasis on rights-based approaches. This reflects an evolving understanding that migration is not a temporary crisis but a long-term structural reality that demands integrated and sustainable policy responses.

How Europe chooses to balance openness and security in the coming decade will profoundly influence its identity and global standing. As memories of the 2015 crisis converge with new geopolitical and climate-related displacement trends, the challenge for the EU is to remain agile, principled, and unified in the face of complexity.

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