Credit: crisisgroup.org

ISIS global reach: Examining the threat of its expanding African strongholds

Over a decade since its rise, ISIS remains among the most persistent terrorist groups. Despite losing its Iraq-Syria caliphate in 2019, it has expanded into fragile regions, especially in Africa, where weak governance and local grievances fuel its resurgence, granting the group renewed momentum and global security implications.

ISIS is no longer one insurgency It is a web of cronies leveraging on regional insecurity to stay relevant on the world stage. Its operation in countries such as Nigeria, Mali, Mozambique, and Sahel have shown a change in approach, which can possibly be the future of international terrorism.

Is ISIS A Terrorist Organization According To The UN?

Yes. The United Nations has formally declared ISIS a terrorism group with the first resolutions being UN Security Council Resolution 2170 in 2014. This decision, and other enactments that were subsequently passed, instituted global measures that included sanctions, asset freezing, and arms embargo against anyone and entities related to ISIS (ISIL or Daesh). The organization is continued to be listed by the UN in the Al-Qaida Sanctions Committee, which proves the threat to the international community ambivalently.

It is proven that despite international consensus, ISIS has been adaptable. Its legal status has not hampered its ability to run its operations via decentralized regional franchises that cannot be detected and made accountable.

The African Pivot: New Frontlines In An Old War

ISIS has turned to Africa with opportunities presenting themselves in already under-governed spaces in this continent. This geographic shift is captured by the rise of ISIS-West Africa Province (ISWAP) in Nigeria and the Lake Chad region and ISIS-Mozambique in Cabo Delgado. Specifically, these offshoots are not parabolic extensions- they are functional, fatal and expanding.

ISIS’s expansion into the Sahel, the Congo, and East Africa reveals a strategic goal: to rebuild influence where counterterrorism mechanisms are weakest. In a 2021 declaration, the group even named West Africa as one of its new strategic strongholds.

United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres addressed this development directly in a Security Council briefing in 2021, warning, 

“The threat posed by ISIL remains global and evolving. It continues to exploit conflict, weak governance, and inequality.” 

His utterance reflects how the group can adjust to regional violence where it is hardly found.

Original insight: Africa is not simply a fallback for ISIS—it’s a long-term battleground where the group is embedding itself in local dynamics that global actors often overlook.

ISIS Terrorist Group History: From Fallujah To The Forests Of Congo

The origins of ISIS are the U.S invasion of Iraq. The group, formerly referred to as al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) split in 2006 when it changed its name to the Islamic State of Iraq and subsequently renamed to ISIS (Islamic State of Iraq and Syria) in 2013. Its 2014 proclamation of a caliphate in Mosul shocked the world, and resulted in a multinational military campaign that led to its territorial defeat by 2019.

Military defeat in Syria and Iraq did not stamp out the threat. ISIS instead has used franchising–or rather local insurgencies operating under its international brand. This strategy has particularly worked in Africa where new affiliates have adapted ISIS ideology with reference to the local situations.

How Do Terrorists Get Their Funding?

ISIS has been using various and flexible funding mechanisms. In Iraq, the group was making billions of dollars in oil smuggling and robbery, and levies. It has applied these tactics in Africa, where it has learned to monetise kidnapping and ransoming, taxation of rural populations, extortions of traders and smuggling goods and control of illicit markets.

ISIS-linked insurgents exploit illicit timber and gem trades, in northern Mozambique, as an example. In Nigeria, ISWAP presents taxes such as a so-called zakat (an Islamic tax) in villages of their control. Such methods of finance tend to be associated with cross-border criminal organizations.

Although terror financing has become more difficult across borders, its operations take place in informal economies where enforcement and little state control make it hard to shut down in African regions.

The answer to this question is that financing of terrorist activities in Africa should be cut through local economic re-structure as well as international sanctions since no financial network can be operating in isolation of the host economy.

Regional And Global Security Implications

The spread of ISIS in Africa is not only a local issue alone since it has global effects. The location of the group overlaps with the major Migration corridors, trades and volatile political zones. The Sahel is a particularly soft target where extremism poses a risk of leaking across borders, destabilizing countries of the Sahel such as Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, to mention but a few.

The G5 Sahel, French and United States military campaigns, and African Union are launched. Much of these initiatives have however faltered because of a lack of coordination and political insularity amongst the African governments.

During the U.S. Senate hearing in 2020, General Stephen Townsend, then Commander of U.S. Africa Command, warned, 

“ISIS and al-Qaeda are on the march in West Africa. They’re attacking more, and they’re getting stronger.” 

His assessment reinforced growing fears that jihadist groups in Africa may become the new epicenter of international terrorism if not contained.

Beyond The Battlefield: The Strategic Shift

Unlike its earlier focus on holding territory, ISIS now prioritizes instability and endurance over geography. The African model involves embedding itself in local disputes—ethnic tensions, land rights, political corruption—and framing them within a jihadist narrative.

By doing so, ISIS has blurred the lines between terrorist insurgency and civil conflict, making counterterrorism efforts more complex. This new form of warfare relies on endurance, propaganda, and infiltration rather than large-scale military confrontation.

As the group’s structure becomes more decentralized, identifying and targeting leadership becomes harder. This evolution also allows the group to survive leadership losses without major disruptions.

Conclusion: A New Phase In A Persistent War

The fall of Raqqa and Mosul did not signal the end of ISIS. It marked a transformation—from a state-like entity to a networked insurgency embedded in Africa. The question “Is ISIS a terrorist organization according to the UN?” has a clear legal answer. But the more pressing question today is how the international community will respond to the evolving reality of ISIS in Africa.

From local taxation to regional infiltration, the group continues to exploit political fragmentation and weak governance. Without strong countermeasures that combine military action with socioeconomic solutions, ISIS’s African strongholds could become permanent—and even expand. The world may be looking away from ISIS, but ISIS is not done looking for opportunity.

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