Twenty years following the initiation of the US-led war on terror, what started out as a global campaign against extremist threats has been transformed into a wide-ranging network that is eroding Arab sovereignty.
The initial requirement of eliminating the terrorist networks has evolved into sophisticated versions of geopolitical administration that tend to marginalize local governance and promote international military, diplomatic and intelligence agendas.
According to Global Terrorism Index 2025, hotspots of continuing conflict in Syria, Iraq and Yemen, where official vacuum persists, are still in place. They are used by military forces, which are usually an armed group in the context of the multilateral military presence or in the competition between different regions. The role of foreign intervention be it in formal alliances or covert operations is currently playing a more important role in the determination of national paths than the local political institutions.
The Reordering Of Power In The Middle East
The power balances in the Middle East have changed where military control is not the norm but rather dynamic and converging networks of power composed of state and non-state actors.
Turkey, Iran, And Proxy Control
Turkey is still emphatic on its presence in northern Syria, working on security and economic interests. Although the US and Russia continue to have a low level yet strategic presence, Iran continues to exert its influence as proxies in Iraq, Lebanon and Syria. Examples of changing balances in 2020-23, such as the realignment of regional diplomacy seen in the example of China-brokered rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia, did not decrease proxy-driven conflict.
Gulf States Expanding Military Reach
The UAE and Saudi Arabia have spent a lot on the interventions in the region. Their increasing relationship towards the outside world beyond the Western bloc such as the relationship with China and Russia demonstrate a move towards strategic independence. Vision 2030 of Riyadh has increased foreign policy ambitions but the persistence of the civil war in Yemen and the state of insecurity at the border make its implementation difficult. The volatility is further highlighted by the military aggression by Israel on Iranian possessions in Lebanon and Syria.
Consequences For Governance And Civil Stability
The continual military intervention foreign and regional has badly undermined domestic governance in major Arab states.
The destabilization of the Syrian government following the ousting of Bashar al-Assad in December 2024 left behind disunified areas of power, with the Kurdish forces occupying the northeast and Islamist groups continuing to hold other areas. This puts the basic services on operational limitations, frustrates the process of national reconstruction and also encourages sectarian divides.
In the meantime, hundreds of millions are displaced. Repatriation activities are at its knees because both security and infrastructure are ineffective. The ruling systems are usually reliant on the foreign-trained armies or the externally financed government structures, which reduces credibility in the eyes of local communities.
Societal Fractures And External Narratives
The situation has been aggravated by the fact that global Islamophobia and antisemitism levels have increased in 2025. In the United States, the number of antisemitic acts rose by 200 percent in 2024, driving up the political rhetoric on security. This culture of fear is employed to legitimize ongoing foreign intervention in Arab countries at the expense of voices of the affected societies. The Arab populations in the diaspora in Europe and North America have become extremely vocal with regard to the dual role that they are caught between suspicion and advocacy.
Scholarly And Diplomatic Perspectives
Academic and policy communities now largely agree that the war on terror has failed to deliver sustainable peace in the Arab world. Its militarized form has bred cycles of violence, repression, and weakened institutions.
Research from the Carnegie Endowment describes current conflicts as “new wars of attrition,” where fragmented militias and foreign-supported regimes prolong instability without resolving core issues. These scenarios expose a shift from temporary military responses to long-term control mechanisms dressed in security rationale.
Commentators argue that the central issue is no longer terrorism, but control. Arab sovereignty, once compromised through war, is now challenged by administrative subordination to foreign frameworks of stabilization. The elusive nature of true self-determination is as Western or regional approval remains conditional for any peace talks, aid flow, and reconstruction plans.
It is similar to the perception voiced by author Afshin Rattansi, who, critically, analyzed the heritage of US intervention since 9/11. In reference to the perennial disintegration of Western security interests that substitute sovereignty with governance by external interests he noted:
BEIRUT, LEBANON LAST NIGHT
— Afshin Rattansi (@afshinrattansi) October 1, 2024
Once again, a country in the Middle East is bombed with US-UK-EU weaponry
Once again, Washington’s thirst for war and domination leads to the destruction of another country in the region
While BRICS and the rest of the global south pursue… pic.twitter.com/7ivWKslaAJ
Moving Beyond Militarized Approaches To Peace
The growing ineffectiveness of the area indicates that the focus on the military solutions will have to be diminished in favor of political reconciliation and regional responsibility.
Lessons From Regional Diplomacy
The 2023 diplomatic normalization between Saudi Arabia and Iran proved the possibility of regional actors rewriting the security narratives. This mediation that was not facilitated by the West allowed the opportunity to de-escalate in the disputed areas of Yemen and Syria. Nevertheless, the development in the region is still weak as it is continually challenged by alliances and external entanglements.
Rebuilding Sovereignty Through Local Empowerment
The rebuilding of Arab states should focus on inclusive governments, representation at the grassroots and development on equal measures. Counter-terror structures must be designed to address the socio-economic frustrations which drive extremism and not just the symptoms of the disease. This would entail the inclusion of local stakeholders in the processes of peace and the lessening of reliance on external apparatus of security, which is led by foreign powers.
The global assistance, as far as funding and diplomacy is concerned, should not be about imposing stability but facilitating sovereignty. Civil society, tribal, and women-led groups are critical in conflict and community integration efforts and many organizations also lack support and acknowledgment. Entrepreneurship of such actors is yet another critical way ahead.
The changing nature of Middle Eastern security in the year 2025 is that the so-called war on terror has outgrown its initial form and has transformed into a structure of continuous foreign governance. The sovereignty in most Arab states has turned out to be conditional restricted by proxy rule, diplomatic pressure and military presence. With new conflicts and old conflicts arising, the region is finding itself at a forks crossroad, where militarization should be replaced with local government, state-building which includes the locals and political innovations based on autonomy and not on foreign design.
