Immediate Action Required to Prevent Escalation in the South Caucasus

The Tactics Institute urgently calls upon the governments of Armenia and Azerbaijan to exercise restraint and engage in diplomatic negotiations to avoid a potential outbreak of war. The return of the four Azerbaijani villages held by Armenia since the early 1990s must be addressed through peaceful means to ensure regional stability and security.

Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan recently warned that his country might face war with Azerbaijan by the end of the week if it does not return the four Azerbaijani villages. This dire prediction was made during a meeting with residents in the Tavush region. These villages, strategically important as they lie along the main route between Yerevan and the Georgian border, have been under Armenian control but uninhabited for over 30 years.

The tension surrounding these villages is a continuation of the decades-long conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh, a region internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan but populated and controlled by ethnic Armenians since the 1990s. The conflict reignited last September when Azerbaijan retook Nagorno-Karabakh, causing nearly all of its 100,000 ethnic Armenian residents to flee.

Azerbaijan has stipulated that the return of its lands, including several small enclaves within Armenia, is essential for a peace agreement. Despite ongoing talks aimed at signing a formal peace treaty, issues such as the demarcation of the 1,000km shared border remain unresolved. The region remains highly militarized and volatile, posing a significant threat to peace and stability.

The Tactics Institute demands that Armenia and Azerbaijan adhere to international laws and norms to prevent further escalation. Armenia’s willingness to consider returning Azerbaijani land and adjusting its road networks to avoid Azerbaijani territory is a positive step. However, the use of threats and the potential for imminent war is a gross violation of fundamental human rights and international peace principles.

Both nations must cease any actions that exacerbate tensions and instead, focus on constructive dialogue facilitated by international mediators. The involvement of organizations such as NATO and the European Union could provide a neutral platform for negotiations and ensure compliance with international human rights standards.

The Tactics Institute calls on both Armenia and Azerbaijan to immediately halt any aggressive posturing and commit to peaceful negotiations. It is imperative that both parties prioritize the safety and security of their citizens and the broader region. The international community must also play a proactive role in mediating this conflict to ensure long-term peace and stability.

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