Tactics Institute is deeply concerned by India’s midnight missile and air raids on various targets in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir, a significant escalation after last month’s deadly terrorist attack on Pahalgam tourists. The raids, described by Indian officials as “precision operations based on credible intelligence,” were reportedly directed against Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammed, and Hizbul Mujahideen infrastructure.
Between 01:05 and 01:30 IST, Indian air planes and missile systems struck nine targets, including deep targets deep inside Pakistan’s Punjab province — quite a geographical distance from the Line of Control. India asserts it has knocked out vital militant infrastructure, including a Jaish-e-Mohammed command center at Bahawalpur and a LeT training camp in Muzaffarabad. In retaliation, Pakistan alleges it has destroyed five Indian planes and a drone, killing 26 Indian soldiers and injuring 46 in Indian shelling. Meanwhile, India reported the deaths of 10 civilians due to Pakistani shelling across the LoC.
Intimidation and retaliation: Deadly patterns
This latest military escapade is a part of an alarming trend of retaliatory strikes between two nuclear-armed powers. India’s “surgical strikes” along the LoC in 2016 were triggered by the Uri attack. The Pulwama bombing in 2019 set off airstrikes on Balakot — an altercation that brought the two countries to the verge of full-scale war. And now, in response to the Pahalgam attack, India has adopted what analysts have labeled a “Balakot plus” policy: more sustained, bolder, and high-profile targeting of the militant outfits across Pakistan’s mainstream.India’s aim, in official terms, is to “re-establish deterrence” lost since 2019.
But such measures have the potential to escalate into a wider confrontation. As experts point out, India’s recent response is informed by the perception that deterrence must involve “periodic, repeated strikes,” like doctrines followed by Israel. But this calculation may overlook Pakistan’s political, military, and public imperatives to retaliate in kind.
Call for restraint and new diplomatic channels
Tactics Institute calls on New Delhi and Islamabad to exercise immediate restraint and re-enter diplomatic talks. The mutual military saber-rattling not only risks civilian lives on both sides but also discredits regional stability and economic rebound efforts. Considering Pakistan’s still ongoing internal political turmoil and India’s increasingly more assertive regional stance, the danger of miscalculation is perilously high.
The Institute cautions that while the strikes might seem tactically precise, the strategic consequences could be catastrophic. Experts note that a change in public mood in central Punjab can squeeze the Pakistani military into vengeful retaliation, restarting a malign cycle of escalation. Analysts warn that even a single round of retaliatory strikes could cause an uncontrolled escalation of conflict — possibly the most dangerous since the 2002 crisis.
The Tactics Institute:
- Denounces the use of cross-border strikes as a means of deterrence, especially between nuclear powers.
- Calls on both Pakistan and India to stop the military operations immediately and resort to third-party-facilitated crisis diplomacy.
- Calls on global allies, including the U.S., EU, and China, to push the two countries towards de-escalation and recommencing back-channel talks.
- Supports multilateral backing for counterterrorism cooperation that will not risk civilians or regional security.
The India-Pakistan conflict has reached a very dangerous level. Without immediate diplomatic intervention and explicit restraint by both parties, the cycle of reprisal can escalate into a wider war with irreparable humanitarian costs. Tactics Institute calls on policymakers and international partners to emphasize de-escalation and new dialogue over brinkmanship.
