The Tactics Institute for Security and Counterterrorism is deeply concerned by recent developments in Somalia. Two C-130 Egyptian military aircraft landed at Mogadishu airport, along with a substantial shipment of weapons and personnel. The Egyptian arms shipment has flashed alarm among Somali officials.
Reports indicate that 500 men, recruited primarily based on clan affiliation, are being armed with these newly delivered weapons. This raises significant concerns over the integrity of Somalia’s national security forces, as well as the potential for exacerbating internal clan tensions. This development occurs against the backdrop of Somalia’s vehement opposition to a Memorandum of Understanding signed between Ethiopia and Somaliland earlier this year.
The Tactics Institute expressed grave concerns over the influx of illicit weapons and the restructuring of the Somali army in favour of certain clans.
Analysts fear that the ongoing militarization of clan militias may be tied to political manoeuvres ahead of the 2026 elections. This is especially worrisome as the African Union forces prepare for a drawdown later this year, raising the spectre of increased violence as Somalia grapples with unresolved political and security challenges. Egypt’s involvement in Somalia is not without precedent. Historical evidence shows that Egyptian-backed militias contributed to deadly conflicts in the region. Somalia’s history of external interference in its internal disputes, particularly from Egypt, raises concerns over the future of peace and stability in the Horn of Africa.
In light of these developments, the Tactics Institute for Security and Counterterrorism calls on the international community to closely monitor the situation in Somalia. It must ensure that arms shipments do not escalate violence or lead to further instability.
The Tactics Institute for Security and Counterterrorism emphasizes the need for vigilance. Diplomatic engagement is needed to prevent Somalia from sliding further into violence and fragmentation. The militarization of clan-based militias, exacerbated by external involvement from Egypt, threatens to undermine Somalia’s fragile security gains. The international community must act swiftly to prevent further destabilization and ensure that Somalia’s future is one of peace and national unity.
