Tactics Institute is deeply troubled by the worsening political and military crisis in South Sudan, cautioning that the nation is on the verge of internal collapse and regional destabilization. Recent events – such as the detention of SPLM/A–IO leader Riek Machar, escalated fighting between government and opposition forces, and the breakdown of the 2018 peace deal – are rapidly undermining the pillars of the transitional government of President Salva Kiir.

The removal of top military leaders, including the influential intelligence chief in October last year, has awakened unrest in the capital, Juba, and elsewhere. Tensions are particularly acute in the Upper Nile states where fighting between national forces and militias risks becoming a large-scale war. Kiir’s increasing dependence on a dwindling and factionalised army only makes it harder to stabilise affairs.

Security sector tensions are deep-seated, fueled by ethnic, generational, and geographic fault lines. Government-aligned forces and opposition forces are scattered in unequal and unstable configurations. The SPLM/A–IO, once a central player in the peace process, is fragmenting under pressure and losing ground, with fears of resurgent war.

The Sudanese crisis has, in turn, destabilised South Sudan further. The Sudan oil pipeline closure by February 2024 struck Juba’s economy a fatal blow, prompting Kiir’s administration to seek loans from the UAE – one of Sudan’s largest supporters of its Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Subsequently, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF), once allies of Kiir’s administration up until this time, now seem to be funding the SPLM/A–IO insurgency in the Upper Nile region.

Making it even more complicated is the use of Ugandan troops in South Sudan. Uganda, which itself is an ally of the UAE and has been traditionally opposed to the SAF, adds another level to an already internationalised conflict. Unless de-escalation and diplomacy kick in quickly, South Sudan risks being pulled into the wider war engulfing Sudan.

Tactics Institute cautions that without structural reforms and a new political vision, the South Sudanese state could potentially fragment beyond redemption. The inability to share power and resources equitably has resulted in a fragile regime focusing on short-term regime consolidation at the expense of sustainable peacebuilding. The external liberalization of the state, donor exhaustion, and the isolation of non-aligned groups risk setting another ruinous civil war alight.

Tactics Institute urges the African Union, IGAD, and international stakeholders to act urgently to:

• Re-engage with the Transitional Government of South Sudan to revive the implementation of R-ARCSS.
• Mediate between the SPLM/A-IO and the government to stop more fragmentation and militarisation.

Deal with the regional aspects of the crisis, such as the role of Sudanese and Ugandan armies and external actors’ interests like those of the UAE.