The Tactics Institute expresses deep concern over the tragic downing of Azerbaijan Airlines flight J2-8243, which claimed the lives of 38 individuals. An Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 crashed on Christmas Day during an attempted landing near Aktau, Kazakhstan. Of the 67 people on board, 38 died, including all three pilots and one flight attendant. The other passengers were 37 Azerbaijani citizens, six Kazakhs, three Kyrgyz, and 16 Russians.
A total of 29 survived, though many were badly injured. Azerbaijani government sources indicate that the crash was a result of a Russian surface-to-air missile. According to them, the missile was fired during an aerial drone activity above Grozny; hence, there was mid-flight shrapnel damage on the aircraft13. Video evidence is said to depict fuselage shrapnel holes congruent with missile damage.
The pilots lost control of the aircraft, but they still managed to stay airborne for about 300 miles before attempting an emergency landing at Aktau Airport. They had initially prepared for a water landing but crashed about three kilometres from the runway. Throughout the flight, there were reports of GPS jamming affecting navigation systems. This interference was a cause of poor communication with air traffic control and could have worsened the situation as the pilots tried to land.
Russia indicated an initial bird strike cause, while Azerbaijan’s president, Ilham Aliyev, cited evidence of shrapnel damage consistent with anti-aircraft fire. Suspicions of anti-aircraft activity by Russia ranged from Ukrainian drones to electronic warfare. President Aliyev has publicly rejected Russia’s initial narratives, calling for an international investigation and transparency.
Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev blamed Russia for the crash, claiming that the plane was shot down by Russian ground fire while flying over Russian territory. He stated that the aircraft was damaged by an antiaircraft missile and was hit by electronic warfare that made it uncontrollable. Russian President Vladimir Putin expressed regret over the incident but did not accept responsibility. He termed it a “tragic incident” but didn’t confirm if Russian air defense was involved in bringing down the aircraft. The flight’s data recorders have been sent to Brazil, where experts from multiple nations, including Azerbaijan, will analyze the evidence to ensure credibility.
Azerbaijan’s claim that the aircraft was hit by a missile would be a clear violation of these established norms. If confirmed, such an action would not only violate the prohibition against using armed force against civilian aircraft but also raise serious questions about the justification and proportionality of military actions taken by Russia in this context.
According to the Chicago Convention on International Civil Aviation, Article 3, no state shall use armed force against civil aircraft in flight. The principle is supported by various international agreements that underscore the protection of civil aviation and the safety of passengers. The Convention holds that “every State must refrain from resorting to the use of weapons against civil aircraft in flight” and that any interception should not endanger lives on board.
The Tactics Institute calls on all involved parties, including Russia and Kazakhstan, to facilitate open access to flight data and evidence for international investigators, ensuring a thorough and unbiased examination. Russia must fully admit its role in the incident and issue an official apology to Azerbaijan, fostering trust and accountability. Involve neutral aviation bodies and experts to prevent conflicts of interest and guarantee credibility in the investigative process.
The Tactics Institute calls upon all stakeholders to take the issue at hand seriously by upholding the principles of truth, justice, and accountability to ensure that the victims and their families receive justice and that international aviation safety is preserved.
