The Tactics Institute for Security and Peace expresses deep alarm over the increasing likelihood of a de facto partition in Sudan. This development seems to further threaten the destabilization of the region and the enrooting of the conflicts underway. The nearly two years that have passed in the fight between Sudan’s army and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces seem now to put the country on the brink of its own divide and worse humanitarian catastrophes about national unity.
Since hostilities broke out in April 2023, Sudan has suffered incalculable destruction: tens of thousands killed, millions displaced, and a generalized famine. The RSF has solidified its grip over Darfur, a region nearly the size of France, while the Sudanese army is pushing forward in other areas, making for a deadly split. Analysts warn that such a partition could trigger local conflicts, fracture alliances, and make a lasting peace deal unattainable.
The RSF’s entrenchment in Darfur and recent defeats outside the region underscore the risks of Sudan fragmenting into warlord-controlled territories. Darfur’s strategic importance, given its resources and borders with Chad, Libya, and South Sudan, makes it a focal point for escalating violence. Additionally, infighting among RSF-aligned tribes and the army’s reliance on auxiliary militias could spark further chaos, jeopardizing any chance of national reconciliation.
The Tactics Institute urges the international community and Sudanese stakeholders to take decisive actions. Both the army and RSF must prioritize a cessation of hostilities to prevent further civilian casualties and displacement. A mediated negotiation process involving all key factions, civil society, and international partners is essential to avert permanent division.
International peacekeeping forces and humanitarian organizations should ensure civilians’ safety in Darfur amid the threat that the region becomes a focal point for escalated hostilities. Supporting nations on one side or another militarily-the list includes Egypt and Turkiye, and should immediately stop fueling the conflict. Demobilizing militia programs to reintegrate ex-combatants into society forms a key to sustainable stability in the region.
According to the Tactics Institute, unchecked partition risks irreparable harm to Sudan’s sovereignty, opening a vacuum to be exploited by extremist groups and criminal networks. The international community must act swiftly to prevent the disintegration of one of Africa’s largest nations. The Tactics Institute calls on all parties to prioritize peace and stability in Sudan. The cost of inaction is too great—further division and prolonged conflict threaten not only Sudan but also the stability of the broader region. The time to act is now.