The Tactics Institute for Security and Counterterrorism is sounding the alarm over the increasing tensions between the United States and China, warning that the relationship between the two superpowers is nearing a dangerous tipping point. The Institute calls for urgent diplomacy to prevent a potential conflict that could have disastrous consequences for global stability, akin to but far more impactful than the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
A key factor driving the risk of conflict is the dangerous proximity both countries are approaching each other’s “red lines.” Taiwan remains the most critical flashpoint, with Beijing repeatedly stating that any support for Taiwanese independence by the U.S. would be viewed as an act of war. Recent U.S. moves to bolster Taiwan’s defence, including potential arms sales, have raised concerns that a misstep could lead to an irreversible confrontation.
The current U.S. political climate exacerbates these risks, particularly as the 2024 election cycle approaches. Rising anti-China sentiment, driven by both Democratic and Republican hawks, is likely to result in increasingly aggressive rhetoric and policies. The U.S. has imposed sanctions aimed at limiting China’s access to critical technologies such as semiconductors, prompting Beijing to consider retaliatory measures, including potential sanctions on U.S. companies.
Additionally, both nations are moving toward securing their supply chains in critical industries like technology and minerals, leading to increased geopolitical competition. This trend of “onshoring” and “friend-shoring” is reshaping alliances and economic ties globally, forcing nations like South Korea and Saudi Arabia to navigate the escalating U.S.-China rivalry.
The Tactics Institute also highlights the growing populism within China, where an increasingly adversarial public sentiment is complicating the government’s efforts to maintain internal unity. While China’s leadership remains focused on avoiding a conflict, internal pressures, combined with external provocations, could make it more difficult for Beijing to exercise restraint. The Tactics Institute urges both the U.S. and China to exercise restraint and engage in constructive diplomacy.
