Credit: AP file

Russian Forces in Syria Lose Control of Key Mediterranean Bases

Syria and Russia have agreed to reorganize Moscow’s military presence along Syria’s Mediterranean coast, ending the arrangement under which Russian forces exercised exclusive control over the country’s two most important foreign military facilities.

The agreement covers the Hmeimim air base near Latakia and Russia’s naval facility at Tartus. Under the memorandum of understanding announced by Syria on August 9, Damascus will assume management of civilian facilities at both sites, while the military installations will be converted into joint Syrian-Russian training and qualification centers.

The deal comes after about 18 months of negotiation between the two states. The Syrian Foreign Ministry declared that the new agreement would safeguard the mutual interests of both countries and mark a new era for relations. The transition is supposed to take place within a maximum period of three months. The political significance of this agreement lies in the fact that the presence of Russian military bases such as Hmeimim and Tartus had formed the core of Russia’s military might in the Middle East and the eastern Mediterranean ever since it intervened in the Syrian civil war in 2015. However, this does not automatically mean that all Russian forces, planes, weapons, and naval assets would withdraw from Syria.

What the new agreement changes

In a statement released by the Syrian foreign ministry, it was noted that the facilities would be transferred slowly to the Syrian government administration. The specific facilities mentioned include Hmeimim Airport and the fourth berth in Tartus port. This will enable the Damascus government to exercise control over the civil functions as well as administration of these facilities. In addition, there is an intention to integrate the facilities in the transport and commerce networks of Syria. Inspections of the facilities have been underway since the deal has been made known. The foreign minister of Syria, Asaad Hassan al-Shaibani, inspected Latakia international airport and Tartus Port. However, the military facilities will not just be closed; their role will be changed.

The Syrian announcement used language referring to “training and qualification” and “mutual interests.” The wording leaves important operational questions unanswered, including who will command the facilities, how many Russian personnel will remain, whether Russian aircraft will continue to use Hmeimim and whether Russian naval vessels will retain access to Tartus.

The three-month implementation deadline is therefore the first major test of the agreement. The deadline may cover the transfer of civilian management rather than the complete removal of Russian military equipment or personnel.

Why Hmeimim matters to Moscow

The Hmeimim base has been the main Russian air power center in Syria following Moscow’s military intervention in Syria starting from September 2015. From Hmeimim, Russian aircraft carried out air strikes against the forces opposing the government of Bashar al-Assad. With Hmeimim, Russia had its own permanent aviation base in the eastern Mediterranean. Furthermore, through this base, the Russians gained the capability of sending troops and other resources to support Assad’s forces. Hmeimim was not only an airbase for Russia. 

It became a symbol of Russia’s coming back to the Middle Eastern region as a major military player following the fading of the Soviet Union’s influence. With the help of the base, Moscow backed Assad, protected its citizens, planned its military operations with the Syrians, and improved its diplomatic stance regarding the situation in Syria.

Furthermore, Hmeimim played a role as part of the Russian military network in the region. Aircraft and people stationed at the base could help Russian forces operating in the region and the naval forces operating out of Tartus.

If Russia loses exclusive control of Hmeimim, its military flexibility will be reduced. However, a joint training arrangement could still allow the Kremlin to preserve access to runways, maintenance facilities, communications systems and Syrian military counterparts.

Tartus and Russia’s Mediterranean strategy

Tartus has long been central to Russia’s naval strategy. The facility was developed during the Soviet era and became Russia’s most important naval support point outside the former Soviet Union.

The site allows Russian vessels to receive supplies, conduct maintenance and remain deployed in the Mediterranean without returning to ports in Russia’s Black Sea region. It has also supported the rotation of Russian naval forces operating near Syria, Libya and other parts of the Middle East and North Africa.

Back in 2017, an extended deal between Russia and the Assad regime was made in relation to the use and extension of the Tartus port facilities. According to the news of the time, the deal allowed Russia to have as many as 11 warships in the port, including those with nuclear propulsion, within the framework of 49 years of usage. 

This deal created a strategic opportunity for Russia to have its warm-water base there. Tartus port was important for Russia because of its ability to have a constant presence of its navy in the Mediterranean Sea without having additional expenses related to the distant supply of ships from its native ports. In this way, a new Syrian-Russian memorandum can change the very basis of that presence. It is not clear if the previous deal was annulled, modified or just substituted by the new one. This ambiguity is vital as a port considered a joint training center still can allow docking of Russian warships, but not in the same conditions anymore.

The political impact of Assad’s fall

The new agreement cannot be separated from the fall of Bashar al-Assad and the restructuring of Syria’s political system. Russia was Assad’s most powerful international military supporter, and its bases were negotiated with the former government.

Moscow’s intervention helped Assad’s forces regain territory and survive years of armed opposition. Russian air power, military advisers and diplomatic backing were central to the government’s war effort. Hmeimim became the operational headquarters of that intervention, while Tartus served as its naval and logistical counterpart.

After Assad’s removal, the political legitimacy of Russia’s long-term military privileges became more complicated. The new authorities in Damascus had to decide whether to preserve the old arrangements, demand their revision or seek the complete departure of Russian forces.

The compromise announced on August 9 appears designed to avoid an abrupt rupture. Syria obtains greater control over national infrastructure, while Russia retains a structured relationship with the Syrian military.

For Damascus, the arrangement can be presented as a restoration of sovereignty. For Moscow, it offers a way to preserve influence without insisting on the same military privileges it enjoyed under Assad.

The 2024 equipment withdrawal reports

This most recent deal provides a context to prior reports about Russian military presence in Hmeimim. In December 2024, NBC News reported satellite pictures indicating Russian forces preparing for the dismantlement and evacuation of their military equipment from Hmeimim due to the fall of Assad. According to the news report, there were Russian transport planes, particularly the Antonov An-124 heavy transport planes, present in Hmeimim along with the dismantlement of a Ka-52 attack helicopter. 

Further, the news report mentioned that parts of an S-400 air defence system were prepared for the evacuation process. Russian military convoys were observed moving within Syria. These pictures indicated that Moscow was preparing for a possible retreat; however, it could not be concluded from this evidence that Russia planned to leave Syria completely. At that time, equipment could have been evacuated either due to operational needs or due to security issues or the political instability after the fall of Assad. Other reports revealed that some number of Russian personnel had withdrawn from their posts in northeastern Syria, particularly in the region of Qamishli.

The distinction is important. The NBC report concerned a possible military withdrawal and the movement of equipment. The 2026 memorandum is a formal political agreement on the future status of the facilities. The two developments may be connected, but the earlier satellite imagery should not be treated as proof that Russia has now completely left Hmeimim or Tartus.

Syria’s position and official messaging

Damascus has framed the agreement as an orderly reorganization rather than a hostile expulsion of Russia. The Syrian Foreign Ministry said the civilian facilities would be transferred to national management and that military sites would be converted into joint centers.

The ministry described the arrangements as being designed to preserve the interests of both countries. Syrian state media also reported that the civilian transfer process would be gradual and that the new framework would take effect after the three-month transition period.

The wording reflects Syria’s attempt to balance two objectives. The first is to establish control over airports, ports and strategic coastal infrastructure. The second is to avoid provoking a confrontation with Russia, which still possesses military, diplomatic and economic leverage.

Foreign Minister al-Shaibani’s inspection of Latakia airport and Tartus port reinforced the message that implementation had begun. Syrian officials have also indicated that technical and operational evaluations would be conducted before civilian facilities are fully integrated into the national system.

Moscow’s position remains less clear

By far, the most critical limitation regarding the present-day reporting is the absence of an in-depth statement from Moscow. According to the official statement issued by Russia’s Foreign Ministry back in June, the Russian and Syrian cooperation was actively progressing, and the sides were talking about “the possible reformatting of the Russian military infrastructure in Syria.” 

In this regard, the above-mentioned statement demonstrates that the Kremlin was aware of the negotiations and had considered adopting a new arrangement, but still failed to explain in detail what the final legal status of the bases would be and the scope of withdrawal of Russian troops. Thus, the absence of the detailed statement means that there are several questions which have not been answered yet. Namely, it is unclear whether Moscow admits the idea of giving up control of Russian troops.

It is also unclear whether Russia will keep air-defence systems, helicopters, transport aircraft, intelligence facilities or military advisers at the sites. No detailed public timetable for the removal or redistribution of equipment has yet been provided.

What the deal means for the region

For Russia, the agreement risks reducing its ability to project force in the Mediterranean. Exclusive control of Hmeimim and Tartus allowed Moscow to combine air and naval operations from a single allied country. A joint arrangement could make Russian access more conditional and dependent on Syrian approval.

The deal presents Syria an opportunity to regain control of its important civil infrastructures and to show that there is a new way of negotiating the military relationship with other countries. However, Damascus might still seek Russian expertise and training. In relation to NATO and the West, Turkey, the main concern is whether the deal alters the military capability of Russia or merely its administrative capacity. 

If the Russian ships, planes, and staff continue their work, then the implications may not be that significant. However, if the Russian access is denied, then the implications will be severe for Russia. The deal may have a wider implication for the network of Russia in the region. The port of Tartus has been used for its activities in the east Mediterranean, north Africa, and middle east.

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