Credit: Voice of America

Precision warfare in Nigeria: Will the $346M arms package reduce civilian harm?

Nigeria also completed a historic 346 million dollar arms deal with the United States in what is the biggest single purchase of military hardware in recent times. The contract involves more than 1,000 MK-82 500-pound bombs, 5,000+ Advanced Precision Kill Weapon System (APKWS) rounds, programmable fuzes, air foil groups and extensive logistical and technical assistance. The action will complement the existing counter-insurgency operation that Nigeria has been fighting against Boko Haram and the Islamic State West Africa Province (ISWAP) that are still operational in the northern and northeastern states.

Such growth is timely as far as the Abuja security machine is concerned. When the political landscape shifts in 2024, it is likely that even the realisation of tactical successes such as the neutralisation of hundreds of insurgents in Borno State will not provide the entertainment value needed to sustain military capabilities and the morale of many people. The weapon sale is an attempt to change the forces of operation by means of technology, accuracy, and training assistance.

Why previous strategies fell short

More than ten years after the insurgency started, the Nigerian military and other security agencies have yet to address the challenge of insurgents who use inaccessible lands and porous boundaries as well as innocent civilians as strategic cover. Boko Haram and ISWAP are mobile and have no centralized command, which makes the traditional military operations less efficient.

The air support that the military had previously received A-29 Super Tucano aircraft gave the much-needed air support but could not be precise enough on the target that resulted in some reports of civilian casualties. Although in some cases they remain denied or under-reported, these incidents have had detrimental effects in terms of enhancing confidence of the populace and the world about the conduct of the military in Nigeria.

Limitations in surveillance and response

Analysts have pointed out that while Nigeria has increased air sorties and expanded reconnaissance efforts, weak coordination between intelligence and frontline troops continues to create delays in actionable response. This gap is precisely what the new package, with its emphasis on precision weaponry, aims to address.

The strategic advantages of advanced arms

APKWS II laser-guided rockets and programmable fuzes add accuracy to the Nigerian arsenal on a new level. In contrast to unguided munitions, they can enable more surgical airstrikes such as in densely populated areas, or where the insurgents purposefully mix with the civilian population.

But this kind of accuracy has the potential to move the needle away from extensive collateral damage to pinpointed exploits, something which may ultimately recover the confidence of the people in the operational capacity of the security state, as highlighted by retired Brigadier General Sani Usman. There is more likelihood that operation gains can be upheld when they are not exposed to the population feeling in danger but rather being there to protect them.

Strengthening joint force coordination

An analyst, Dr. Ambrose Igboke, based in Abuja, observed that the fact that the new systems will be interoperable across the units of the military and the intelligence within Nigeria will help in resolving the problems that arise out of legacy actions in their communications. Through the combination of surveillance drones, intelligence squads and ground forces, precision-guided weapons have a remarkable chance of enhancing the coordinated attacks especially in inaccessible areas or the deeply forested insurgent hideouts.

In addition, the U.S. package also offers logistics and maintenance training resulting in a performance of the technology that is long-term sustainable, which to date has not been a strong suit of the country in relation to its past hardware purchases.

Political, regional, and ethical implications

The deal brokered by Washington is an indication that the country hopes to rejuvenate cooperation in West Africa to counterterrorism. The Biden government positioned the deal as part of its overall policy aiming to empower its regional allies but not to send American soldiers there physically. The fact that RTX Missiles and Defense, Lockheed Martin and BAE Systems are behind the deal further attest to the seriousness of the commitment.

With regional security in the Gulf of Guinea under threat from trafficking, piracy, and extremist migration, Nigeria’s capacity to manage internal threats also serves broader U.S. and European interests.

Accountability, human rights, and public oversight

Embedded within the agreement are strict conditions regarding weapon usage, human rights compliance, and end-use monitoring. These stipulations aim to address longstanding concerns over alleged abuses by Nigerian security forces and avoid a repeat of incidents like the 2021 airstrike in Borno that killed dozens of civilians during Eid celebrations.

Nuhu Ribadu, Nigeria’s National Security Adviser, acknowledged this expanded understanding of security, saying,

“It is about human security, data protection, and infrastructure resilience.”

This position aligns with the view that kinetic operations must be matched by institutional reforms and public accountability.

A layered response from civil society and digital platforms

The arms deal generated widespread discussion online, including on Nigerian social media channels. A notable perspective shared by an influential voice stressed that while the weapons themselves hold promise, their success will depend on how responsibly they are deployed. 

The comment emphasized:

“This partnership marks a new era for Nigeria’s defense, but positive results hinge on clear rules of engagement and a real commitment to justice and civilian protection.”

These sentiments are echoed by local NGOs and international observers, many of whom stress that transparency, proper engagement rules, and oversight mechanisms must evolve in tandem with new capabilities.

Nigeria’s next steps and wider lessons for global arms cooperation

The delivery of the high-tech arms package to Nigeria is more than just a chance to upgrade the country in terms of firepower, but rather deemed to be a test case in operation of modern and high-stakes arms dealing in a volatile domestic and regional security environment. The mechanisms have been set up to engage in more operationally driven, effective campaigns to deal with terrorists, yet their effectiveness will depend on greater alignment institutionally.

The country needs to take care of adequacy of training of ground units, maintain balance in the civil-military relation, and must organize transparent investigations into allegations of misused deployments. Not only would this satisfy the expectations of the U.S. oversight but also ensure that the domestic and international confidence in the Nigerian military is restored.

The deal is informative to the U.S. too. It signifies the growing role of military-industrial diplomacy in defining the global security order through which weapons are sold on the basis of follow-up training and surveillance, as well as political compatibility instead of simply taking the form of transactional foreign policy.

The way Nigeria copes with this duty in the next few months could determine eventual arms deals in Africa and beyond; particularly where the issue of insurgency is a lingering challenge. The instruments are now in place, but implementation, governance and determination of long-term intent take centre stage in shifting the trajectory of a 10-year conflict.

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