Israel’s assassination of Hassan Nasrallah, the long-time Hezbollah chief, has transformed an already complicated and deadly regional confrontation, with a broad collection of potential consequences for Israel, Gaza, Lebanon and beyond. Before the powerful string of airstrikes that hit several residential facilities in southern Beirut, reviewers in the Mideast had assumed that Nasrallah had left Lebanon following the overall pager explosions earlier this month, but then soon after returned, as the United States presented an endeavour that would lead to a 21-day ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel.
Those thousands of remotely discharged blasts — subsequently sourced to walkie-talkies too — had targeted associates and partners of Hezbollah, and represented a powerful blow to the group. A subsequent Israeli airstrike had then exterminated Hezbollah’s chief of staff, and the Israeli military says Nasrallah was assembling with several other senior commanders.
Amer Al Sabaileh, a Jordanian security specialist and close observer of Hezbollah, expressed the fact Nasrallah was willing to take the high threat to his life of gathering with other Hezbollah leaders amid Israel’s campaign indicates the group was in trouble after two weeks of crippling Israeli attacks.
“The level of shock among Hezbollah cannot be measured,”
Al Sabaileh said.
“Simply, they never anticipated that Israel would initiate and would persist, and does not stop attacking Hezbollah.”
Iran will be examining for some way to turn the tables and save some face. The Axis has not proven useful at providing Iran deterrence against Israel, or a Gaza cease-fire. However, Israel’s successes in lessening Hezbollah’s leadership structure and military abilities could be leveraged to reach a lasting accord that would force Hezbollah forces back from Lebanon’s border with northern Israel.
Hezbollah’s succession objectives and the process by which Nasrallah may be replaced are unclear but should follow a blueprint that saw his height more than 30 years ago, according to Nick Blanford, a nonresident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs and long-time expert of Hezbollah based in Beirut.
“The morale blow is going to be massive for Hezbollah, but technically it should be a repetition of what happened in ’92,”
states Blanford.
“The Shura Council sits down and they elect somebody else.”
