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Hezbollah and Israel on the Brink of Lethal War

Hand-held radios operated by the armed group Hezbollah detonated across Lebanon’s south in the country’s most lethal day since cross-border war erupted between the militants and Israel nearly a year ago, stoking anxieties after similar explosions of the group’s pagers the day before. The operations, which seemed to throw Hezbollah into chaos, played out alongside Israel’s 11-month-old war in Gaza and heightened worries of an escalation on its Lebanese border and the risk of a full-blown regional war.

Hezbollah, which has pledged to retaliate against Israel, expressed it attacked Israeli artillery standings with rockets, the first strike at its arch-foe since the blasts. The Israeli military expressed there were no reports of any harm or casualties.

“Hezbollah wants to avoid an all-out war,”

said Mohanad Hage Ali, deputy director of research at the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut.

“But given the scale … there will be pressure for a stronger response.”

The two sides have been battling across the Lebanese border since the Gaza conflict exploded on Oct. 7, 2023, fuelling fears of a wider Middle East fighting that could drag on the United States and Iran. The previous most increased daily Lebanese death toll was 11 who died in Israeli shelling last month, according to official counts.

Israel, which has pledged to return evacuated residents to their homes in the north, was transferring battalions and resources to the Lebanon border region. Israeli sources expressed this included the army’s 98th Division, which has commando and paratrooper formations, moving from Gaza to the north. 

A full-blown fight with Israel could devastate Lebanon, which has slipped from one crisis to another, including a 2019 financial failure and the 2020 Beirut port blast. Rising pressures may also complicate so far unsuccessful actions by mediators Egypt, Qatar and the U.S. to negotiate a Gaza ceasefire between Israel and militant party Hamas, a Hezbollah ally also backed by Iran.

White House national security spokesperson John Kirby expressed it was too soon to assess the effect of the blasts on ceasefire talks. Hezbollah, Iran’s most influential proxy in the Middle East, stated in a statement it would continue to back Hamas in Gaza and Israel should await a response to the pager “massacre.” Hamas representatives visited people wounded in the blasts in Lebanese hospitals, Lebanese state news agency NNA expressed. The blasts followed a series of assassinations of Hezbollah and Hamas commanders and leaders ascribed to Israel since the start of the Gaza war.

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