Israel has declared it has killed Hamas military chief Yahya Sinwar in Gaza. Sinwar was killed in a chance meeting on October 16 after a tank unit extended fire on a group of Palestinian men handling into a building in Rafah in the southern Gaza Strip. His body was located in the rubble and later recognised as the Hamas leader.

It’s a critical moment in the conflict between Israel and Hamas. Sinwar’s demise follows a campaign of killing of top Hamas leaders by Israel since the most delinquent round of hostilities started after the Hamas raid on Israel on October 7 2023. Just over a year after its abundance of October 7 killings inside Israel, headed by Yahya Sinwar, Hamas as an organisation is in chaos. It is not just the slaying of Sinwar in the chance encounter with Israeli parties in Rafah. Sinwar’s death counts to a lengthy roll call of leading Hamas leaders during the past year.

Primarily, this includes Mohammed Deif, who prepared the October 7 attacks, and Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was slain in Tehran on July 31. These three are just the most famous identities among a host of other senior administrators and military commanders killed by Israel in Gaza or Lebanon.

It has come to light that Sinwar’s younger brother is possibly to take over military command. Veteran figures such as Khaled Meshaal who headed Hamas’s political bureau from 1996 to 2017 remain. But they will labour to sustain the organisation, especially if the Israeli government presses its military edge and continues to identify and kill Hamas’s high command.

However, that does not imply that Hamas as a movement has ended. Mass slaying, even of its leaders, could galvanise it in the more extended run. Those who persist will move up through the levels, and the spirit of resistance and irritation could bring in more recruits. Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, can declare “victory” over Sinwar, Haniyeh and Deif. But success over Hamas, particularly if Israel follows an open-ended occupation in Gaza, may not be guaranteed.

Moreover, Netanyahu has the opportunity of proclaiming “mission accomplished”. However, that will not be valid for many Israelis as long as the captives are not recovered. Without that solution, Netanyahu will bear the risk of losing power if forced into an election and even the resumption of court proceedings over bribery accusations if he ceases military operations.