Iraq has shifted its counter-terrorism efforts from active warfare to sustained vigilance. According to the 2025 Global Terrorism Index, terrorism-related deaths in Iraq have declined by 99% compared to 2007, now averaging fewer than 100 annually. This dramatic reduction reflects not only operational progress but also a broader global recalibration of strategies to counter violent extremism more effectively.
Despite the formal defeat of the Islamic State’s territorial caliphate in 2019, IS remains active in Iraq. An estimated 1,500-3,000 militants act as independent sleeper cells especially in interior or conflicted areas such as Diyala, Kirku and Salah ad-Dine. These cells take advantage of power vacuum and conduct guerrillas-style operations, destabilize infrastructure, and bastardize local government. The insurgencies that the war in Iraq has spawned are but one instance of a larger phenomenon: as battlefield successes erode the fighting power of terrorist groups on the battlefield, structural vulnerabilities permit the reconstitution of insurgencies.
Toward integrated counter-terrorism frameworks
Local participation and intelligence sharing have gradually become part of the operational model of the Iraqi military-led campaigns against IS. Instead of purely using the brute force of military presence, the Iraqi counter-terrorism system now also relies on community watch programs, and tribal networks, which has been a successful pattern applied to civic collaboration in such areas as the Anbar region, and the Nineveh region.
That pattern is an expression of a wider international pattern towards efficiency, in which localized prevention is backed up by kinetic action. Such structures are fronted by the United Nations Office of Counter-Terrorism, which has advocated the adoption of mixed frameworks of security, development and reconciliation.
Socio-political efforts to prevent radicalization
The socio-economic grievances are another underlying cause of the extremist recruitment not only in Iraq. Consequently, integration of education, employment, and retention of internally displaced people has been part of the stabilization of Iraq. The government, with the support of external forces such as the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) is experimenting with vocational training / rehabilitation programs in former IS controlled territories.
These initiatives are aligned with global counter-terrorism discourse, which increasingly treats the battle against extremism as one tied to opportunity, justice, and governance rather than military prowess alone. Prevention through empowerment has become central to national and international frameworks aiming to ensure that terrorist groups do not regain influence.
The importance of international cooperation in Iraq’s gains
The security forces of Iraq are still enjoying direct cooperation with the U.S. led Global Coalition against IS. Training, air support and intelligence sharing also continue to be a key part of an Iraqi counter-terrorism capability. Joint operations are supported by American and European advisors who inform the strategic direction of the initiatives of the elite Counter-Terrorism Service (CTS) that is operated independently.
There has also been international aid to the sector in the area of technological upgrading- in the area of Surveillance, security at the Border and in the area of Forensic investigation. These have been upsets in line with investments in artificial intelligence and biometric systems globally to monitor and intercept any terror-related movement.
The influence of regional geopolitics
The regional power rivalry, most particularly between Iran, Turkey, and the Gulf states, keeps affecting the internal security situation in Iraq. In northern Iraq, Turkish airstrikes against Kurdish militants intersect with those of the Iraqi military and make local governance further challenging and provide new facets to the terrorism plot line. These mixed agendas closely resemble the trends occurring throughout the world where terrorism is usually entangled with geopolitical competition.
Such a tendency is not specific to Iraq. In Syria, Afghanistan and parts of the Sahel, counter-terrorism meets with foreign policy aspirations, arms trading and proxy wars. The Iraq path then provides reflections on how international alignments can at the same time boost and weaken national security operations.
Persisting vulnerabilities despite statistical success
Although the urban centers of Baghdad, Mosul and Basra have stabilized, other areas in Iraq such as rural fringes are volatile. Militants use poor terrain and poor local governance to ambush and attack infrastructure. In other situations, people are stuck between fighting militant groups and under-resourced local policing services and distrust forms little islands, these little islands of distrust help not collect the intelligence needed and to effectively intervene.
This is reflective of issues in other regions such as Nigeria and Mali where there is continued insurgent activity ongoing in the rural and border regions whilst the larger nationals are being developed. Iraq is a prime example supporting the notion that a sustainable success can only be achieved not only by killing of the fighters, but also by the spread of credible governance and security all over the region.
Political fragility and institutional reform
The 2025 political landscape in Iraq remains complex, marked by fragile coalitions, public protests over corruption, and disputes over the distribution of power and resources. Sectarian tensions and governance failures continue to create openings for extremist narratives, especially among youth with limited access to employment or political agency.
These domestic tensions reflect broader global experiences where political instability exacerbates the risk of extremist resurgence. In places like Libya, Pakistan, and Sudan, the absence of political consensus and effective administration has similarly hampered counter-terrorism gains.
Technology, disinformation, and emerging threats
Iraq has also become part of the global digital battlefront. IS and affiliated groups continue to disseminate propaganda online, using encrypted platforms to radicalize individuals and coordinate activity. Despite physical setbacks, digital resilience enables extremist ideology to transcend borders.
To address this, Iraq has partnered with regional and global actors in digital surveillance and online counter-extremism. These partnerships reflect the increasing emphasis on “cyber counter-terrorism” strategies, recognizing that future recruitment and coordination may shift further into the digital sphere.
Anticipating decentralized terrorism
With the Islamic State no longer controlling territory, its operations now resemble those of global affiliate networks. The rise of IS-Khorasan based in Afghanistan and the unbinding African affiliates have become prominent in the year 2025, redirecting the focus to how the ideological affiliations can lead to decentralized violence despite decreasing the power of central groups in countries such as Iraq.
This de-centralized model disrupts the security paradigms. Such transnational influence and ideological fluidity is now a concern to Iraq and its allies, and echoes reports by security agencies in Europe and Asia on the need to contend with lone-social actors and networked cells on both sides of the Atlantic.
Iraq as a global case study in counter-terrorism evolution
The counter-terrorism developments in Iraq are one of the exemplary cases of the international shift toward multidimensional answers to counter-terrorism. It presents the success of entrenching hard-earned security gains with inclusive governance, economic opportunity, and long term community input. With the synergy of local resistance and foreign support, Iraq has been successful in curbing the menace in a bigger way as compared to the past decades in 2025.
The case of Iraq is also a complication to easy definitions of success. Although the weakening of terrorist violence is impressive, the problems that caused it which include political fragmentation, economic stagnation and identity-based grievances are still not addressed. They are the same underlying structural factors that lead to insurgency in other parts of the world in Southeast Asia to North Africa.
With alliances and relationships being transformed and emerging threats being seen as the new frontiers of security, as international forums reconsider security doctrines, the example of Iraq is a good lesson. It explains why a prudent balance must be achieved between tactical operations and long-term strategy and demonstrates why post-conflict situations need to be sustained through ongoing investment to ensure that violence does not reappear.
The developments in Iraq with respect to counter-terrorism highlight a new era in international thought of security-an era where the distinction between security and governance functions have been blurred when terrorism is used. The world will be keeping an eye on what will happen in Iraq as it salvages to get a clear view on how the lessons that it will have learned on its soil may help chart the way on counter-terrorism counteractive measures in future in other parts.
