The Tactics Institute for Security and Counter-Terrorism calls on the European Union, and the United Nations to urgently address rising tensions between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Somalia. With disputes over Nile waters, the recognition of Somaliland, and arms transfers heightening the risk of regional instability.

Recent months have seen deteriorating relations between Ethiopia, Egypt, and Somalia. The latest conflict stems from a security agreement between Egypt and Somalia, signed in August 2024, which has led to weapons transfers to Somalia and plans to deploy Egyptian troops to combat the jihadist group Al-Shabaab. In response, Ethiopia has taken measures to reinforce its border with Somalia and warned against external threats to its sovereignty.

In addition, Somalia’s foreign minister has threatened to support armed groups in Ethiopia if it continues steps toward recognizing Somaliland. Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed responded by issuing strong warnings, while also mobilizing heavy military assets to signal Ethiopia’s readiness to defend its national interests.

The Horn of Africa’s escalating political tensions could further empower the Al-Shabaab militia in Somalia. The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) is set to end its mandate in December 2024, to be replaced by a new AU-led mission, AUSSOM. If Ethiopian forces withdraw, leaving Egypt to take over, Al-Shabaab could exploit the transition period, spreading its influence and potentially infiltrating Ethiopia.

As key international stakeholders, the EU and Germany have a crucial role in promoting stability and supporting counterterrorism efforts. The Institute urges global actors, including the UN Security Council, to recognize the significance of these interconnected conflicts in the Horn of Africa.