Following the lifting of a weapons embargo on Somalia by the UN Security Council months ago, experts are investigating the impact of the decision. For more than 30 years, Somalia was under the prohibition that was created to prevent warlords and militias from arming themselves during the nation’s catastrophic civil war. It was amended multiple times over the years in reaction to the worsening al-Shabaab crisis.

In the final 10 years of the embargo, Somalia required Security Council authorization to purchase or receive certain high-calibre weapons, gear and vehicles. Officials grumbled that this put them at a disadvantage to laboriously armed terror groups. A 2022 study by the Somali research center the Hiraal Institute discovered that al-Shabaab spends $24 million per year on weapons.

“You have al-Shabaab, that can buy from the local markets and illegally smuggle these weapons from, state, Yemen or elsewhere,” Hiraal Executive Director Samira Gaid said. “And so for them, they have access to anything without any commitments. But on the other hand, the government is restricted.”

Governmental and military officials expressed the embargo made them unable to properly arm security forces to protect the nation at a time when the African Union was readying to end its mission in Somalia and hand over full security management to local forces. In December 2023, the U.N. Security Council voted nearly unanimously to completely remove the embargo.

“The lifting of the arms embargo enables us to confront security threats,” stated Somalia’s U.N. Ambassador Abukar Dahir Osman. “It also allows us to bolster the capacity of the Somali security forces by accessing lethal arms and equipment to adequately safeguard our citizens and our nation.”

However, observers and neighbouring nations remain wary of the move. Experts said that if safeguards are not put in place, lifting the embargo threatens to worsen clan violence. It encouraged the nation to demonstrate better authority over its ports to stop the discharge of illegal weapons and called for the Somali National Army to better defend its weapons depots.

The evidence indicates that the premature lifting of the arms embargo could cause a range of adverse outcomes, from intensifying clan disputes and enabling illicit arms flows to posing broader dangers to regional and global stability.

Most observers consent that the embargo did little to control the flow of illegal weapons into Somalia. A 2022 study by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime discovered thriving illicit arms markets in Somalia. The study titled “The Price of Civil War: A Survey of Somalia’s Arms Markets” uncovered that nearly 95% of illegal undersized arms on the market were assault rifles and the extensive majority, 81%, were manufactured in Russia or China. Researchers also discovered that despite a government-established weapons and ammunition control system, guns from security force stocks were sold on the illicit market.

In multiple instances, Somali government weapons have been deployed in attacks by al-Shabaab, the report showed. Now, with the embargo fully lifted, observers express it is incumbent upon Somali officials to enhance monitoring and ensure proper usage of all weapons. 

The triumph of leveraging this opportunity depends on the Somali government’s dedication to transparency, accountability, and commitment to human rights standards. Ensuring that weapons are utilised for legitimate security purposes and are not stolen for internal repression or illicit activities is critical for gaining the trust of the international community.