What did Israel accomplish in Iran after shelling it incessantly for eleven days? When Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced the truce, he said that the Israeli goals had been achieved. It is hard to make such an assumption, to put it nicely.
Have they cut off the nuclear program? It’s probably a negative answer. The US-attacked Fordow reactor appears to have delivered fissile material to Iran. “Decapitation” seems to have failed, as this stockpile is the most important part of the nuclear program.
It’s also unclear. However, Israel was successful in persuading the US to utilize bunker-busting bombs, known as Massive Ordnance Penetrators (MOPs), to strike Iranian nuclear infrastructure. The US did nothing to help the Israeli surge. Determining the extent of the damage would be challenging because Iran is unlikely to allow outside access.
Has Israel weakened or strengthened the Iranian regime?
In summary, it has achieved precisely the opposite. In an attempt to spark an uprising against the government, Israel assassinated military leaders of Iran’s various security organizations. This strategy is based on Israel’s unwavering belief that the best way to destabilize an enemy is to murder its senior leaders. This has never worked.
The only possible exception was the effect of Hassan Nasrallah’s death on Hezbollah in Lebanon, which was mostly caused by internal political pressures in Lebanon. In none of the other cases, Israeli assassinations have led to meaningful political change.
Did targeted killings spark rebellion or national unity?
The Iranian killings helped to bring the people together in support of the government. Israel assassinated prominent commanders of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which is perhaps the most powerful political entity in modern Iran and one of the most hated by the Iranian people. Regardless, many Iranians who consider themselves to be fierce opponents of the Islamic Republic—and especially of the IRGC—found themselves supporting it. Iran as a whole, not just “the regime,” was being assaulted, according to Iranians.
Israel’s attempts to attack “regime symbols” simply made matters worse. It attempted to depict its airstrikes against Evin Prison, known for torturing political prisoners, as supporting the Iranian people in their struggle against the oppression of the Islamic Republic. However, Israel’s bombs actually made the prisoners’ situation worse because the authorities moved many of them to unnamed locations.
Has Iran emerged stronger from this confrontation?
Iran appears to be seen by the international community as a promising business partner for the Middle East‘s operational expansion. Israel has lost this, and Iran has triumphed. The actual damage done to the Israeli heartland must also be considered. Israel quickly overtook Iran in the air and began attacking almost whenever it pleased.
However, Iranian missiles often managed to breach the well-known Israeli air defense system, hitting the heart of Israel and the whole country, and stopping it completely while incurring an unprecedented number of deaths and massive destruction. Israel has a limited stockpile of interceptor missiles and no assurance of a quick replacement. The economy of Israel was soon grinding to a full halt. Iran won another battle.
When the truce seemed to have been broken, Iran was strong enough to persuade Trump to caution Israel from attacking. Iran came out the way it wants to come out: intact and with hope for the future.
