Jihadist group violent campaigns connected to Al-Qaeda and the Islamic State are transforming security dynamics along Niger, Nigeria, and Benin border areas, a new security report indicates.

The report notes that the Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP) have increasingly extended their activities southward from long-held Sahel positions, turning border areas like Dosso in Niger, Alibori in Benin, and areas of Sokoto and Kebbi states in Nigeria into full-fledged conflict areas.

Evidence from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) attests to an acute escalation of politically driven violence in the afflicted areas, with reported fatalities and incidents more than doubling since 2023.

The report emphasizes that both ISSP and JNIM are taking advantage of porous borders to solidify their presence, build proto-state apparatuses, and make military containment more difficult, all while drawing on local economies and illicit trafficking routes to finance their activities.

JNIM, established in 2017 as a merger of four Al-Qaeda-linked groups, has pursued a policy of constructing local alliances and inserting itself within society. Its spread into Benin, Ghana and Togo started from bases in eastern Burkina Faso and southwest Niger.

As compared to this, ISSP, whose origins trace back to Ménaka, Mali, as well as Tahoua and Tillabéri in Niger, has escalated activities in central Dosso, going after infrastructure such as the Benin-Niger oil pipeline. ISSP also uses economic warfare methods, ranging from the levy of zakat (Islamic taxation) to dominance over supply lines, as well as raids against strategic installations.

The report negated media reports of a new faction by the name “Lakurawa” acting in the border area of Niger-Nigeria, and even fighters by the name are part of ISSP networks long operating in Dosso, Sokoto, and Kebbi.

In Dosso, JNIM and ISSP activities overlap, particularly in Gaya and Dioundiou communes, which may lead to future conflicts. Although the two groups have coexisted in some areas, experts warn that they will soon clash due to their history of violent rivalry, especially in Mali’s Liptako-Gourma region.

Recent attacks, like the February 22 assault on villages around Koutoumbou in Dioundiou, which have been blamed on ISSP, indicate a new direction toward mass atrocities against civilians, which is ominous.

The expansion of militant rule is remaking social relations and local economies. Both factions are settling into communities, employing religious outreach, propaganda, and coercion to recruit members, deliver sermons in mosques, and apply strict interpretations of Sharia law.

In northern Niger and northern Benin, local economies are being hijacked to provide services to militant logistics, with local communities bullied into backing illicit fuel and commodities smuggling. This militant entrenchment is also fueling the growth of local defense movements like the Yansakai in Nigeria’s northwest and the Zankai in Niger’s Tillabéry region. Although the groups seek to protect their communities, they potentially also exacerbate ethnic divisions and communal violence.