In October 2022, Russia projected what was then the most comprehensive bombing movement of the war. For the next five months, spirals of Russian missiles and drones hit Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure on an almost daily base. The attacks sought to break Ukraine’s opposition by making life as intolerable as possible for tens of millions of Ukrainian civilians.
At the time, Moscow spokesman Dmitry Peskov openly said that Ukraine could “end the suffering” of the civilian residents by fulfilling Russia’s needs. Instead, the Ukrainian authorities operated with the country’s partners to enhance air defences and import large amounts of electricity generators. Ukrainians survived a dark and often terrifying winter, but the country endured.
The International Criminal Court in The Hague has recently disseminated arrest warrants for high-ranking Russian military officers on suspicion of committing war offences and crimes against humanity under the winter 2022-23 bombardment of Ukraine’s civilian infrastructure. However, this has not stopped the Kremlin from launching a new air offensive against Ukraine’s power grid and other critical infrastructure targets across the country. Once again, Russia seems intent on depopulating whole regions of Ukraine.
In March 2024, large-scale Russian bombing of Ukraine’s power infrastructure continued with a series of massive barrages concerning drones and a variety of missiles. Russian military planners seem to have learned from the errors of Moscow’s earlier bombing campaign; instead of concentrating on the Ukrainian electricity grid’s transmission systems, this latest wave of airstrikes has focused on energy generation infrastructure.
The effects have been devastating. Within a matter of weeks, Ukraine has failed many of its most important thermal power plants and critical hydroelectric plants. Main cities including Kharkiv and Odesa have undergone periodic blackouts and prolonged disturbance to energy supplies. Experts recognise it will take years to repair damaged buildings and replace equipment.
Russia has been capable of achieving such victory by exploiting the growing voids in Ukraine’s air defences due to extended political gridlock in the US over crucial military aid. With Ukrainian air defence crews moved to ration dwindling reserves of interceptor missiles, Russia has been able to shoot and destroy high-value targets such as the largest power plant in the Kyiv region. With additional US aid now expected, Ukrainians may soon see a significant improvement in the country’s air defences.
By pushing large parts of Ukraine unlivable for the civilian population, Russia expects to create a new tide of Ukrainian refugees. Examination of the winter 2022-23 bombing campaign shows that Russian attacks on the Ukrainian power grid did direct to an increase in the number of people leaving Ukraine for the safety of neighbouring EU countries.
Unless Ukraine urgently acquires additional air defence systems and ammunition from the international community, there is a very genuine danger that millions of Ukrainians will be compelled to flee their homes in the coming months. If that occurs, many would be likely to join the millions of Ukrainians who have already escaped the country for the European Union since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion.
Russia’s depopulation tactics have profound consequences for Ukrainian confidence and for the country’s wartime economy. Analysis has found that economically active Ukrainians are the most likely to depart as a result of constant bombardment. Many Ukrainian businesses are already finding it increasingly challenging to fill vacancies, particularly in labour-intensive sectors of the economy.
Meanwhile, fresh inflows of Ukrainian refugees would produce challenges for the country’s European allies, who have already adopted extremely large numbers of Ukrainians since 2022. A significant new wave of refugees could initiate social tensions and undermine political backing for Ukraine within the EU. This possibility for destabilization is also very much a domain of the Russian strategy.